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Nigel
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 Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 11:00 am Post subject: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a lot
of time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur, how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable? And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel |
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IXL Software
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| Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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"Nigel" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a lot of
time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur, how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable? And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel
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The full wheel of course produces 177,100 lines. If the player happens to
capture the 6 main numbers (~79:1), only 22,060 (12.5%) of those lines would
have at least a match3, meaning 155,040 (87.5%) lines would be for naught.
Here's the breakdown:
M0 - 27,132
M1 - 69,768
M2 - 58,140
M3 - 19,380
M4 - 2,565
M5 - 114
M6 - 1
Having met the conditions, any single line from the wheel would have about a
1 in 8 chance of being at least a match3.
Should the player have only 3 of the 25 correct (~3:1), the potential payout
becomes pretty grim:
M0 - 74,613
M1 - 79,002
M2 - 21,945
M3 - 1,540
M4 - 0
M5 - 0
M6 - 0
Any single line from the wheel would have about a 1 in 115 chance of being
at least a match3.
Abbreviated wheels with some kind of covering guarantee would most likely
remain in loose proportion to the above. I believe the player needs a
minimum of 5 correct numbers to have a decent shot at making any kind of
substantial profit. |
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Nigel
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| Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 4:30 pm Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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Nigel wrote:
| Quote: | This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a lot
of time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur, how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable? And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel
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Oops - the blunt knife strikes again. 6 from 25 is 177100, but since the
target is all six there's no possibility of a wheel giving a 90%
guarantee at half the cost :(
Matching 5 numbers seems to get £2000-£2500, so there's no prospect of
getting a reasonable return from 5-number matches from £177100 :(
Evil Nigel |
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Nigel
Guest
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| Posted: Mon May 09, 2005 5:00 pm Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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IXL Software wrote:
| Quote: | "Nigel" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a lot of
time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur, how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable? And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel
The full wheel of course produces 177,100 lines. If the player happens to
capture the 6 main numbers (~79:1), only 22,060 (12.5%) of those lines would
have at least a match3, meaning 155,040 (87.5%) lines would be for naught.
Here's the breakdown:
M0 - 27,132
M1 - 69,768
M2 - 58,140
M3 - 19,380
M4 - 2,565
M5 - 114
M6 - 1
Having met the conditions, any single line from the wheel would have about a
1 in 8 chance of being at least a match3.
Should the player have only 3 of the 25 correct (~3:1), the potential payout
becomes pretty grim:
M0 - 74,613
M1 - 79,002
M2 - 21,945
M3 - 1,540
M4 - 0
M5 - 0
M6 - 0
Any single line from the wheel would have about a 1 in 115 chance of being
at least a match3.
Abbreviated wheels with some kind of covering guarantee would most likely
remain in loose proportion to the above. I believe the player needs a
minimum of 5 correct numbers to have a decent shot at making any kind of
substantial profit.
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Thanks.
Even if what I noticed had any sigificance with regard to future draws
(and that's an extremely huge if), I think exploiting it would be way
beyond the capabilities of any individual or even a medium sized
syndicate. If every syndicate member were to fill in and submit 100
entries, you'd need 1771 syndicate members. I certainly don't know 1771
people who I'd trust to complete the entries correctly and divvy up the
winnings afterwards and that includes me - I made a cock-up on my 3-line
entry on Saturday.
I wonder how the managers of a certain pyramid/syndicate scheme carry
out the mechanics.
Evil Nigel |
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Gerry
Guest
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| Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 12:00 am Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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"Nigel" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a lot
of time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur, how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable? And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel
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Where's a wheelist when you just gotta have one ? Here's some stuff your
local wheelist and/or astrologer won't tell you.
100% 3 if 6 in 25 requires 22 lines. Chance for JP is 0.01242%. 22 random
lines of 25 numbers has ~99.3% chance for at least a 3 match and both have
exact
same chance to win JP. Sounds kinda weird huh ?
100% 4 if 6 in 25 requires 190 lines. Chance for JP is 0.10728%. 190 random
lines of 25 numbers has ~99.6% chance for at least a 4 match and again they
both have same chance for JP.
100% 5 if 6 in 25? If you have to ask you can't afford it ;-)
You may be wondering why all the fuss over 100% guarantee wheels. Well,
it's because...it's because...
Where's a wheelist when you just gotta have one ? |
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Lottoking
Guest
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| Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 2:00 am Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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If you find 3 bankers from 25 for 1,3,4 positions,and wheel the rest 22
numbers to 2,5,6 positions,the jackpot only requires less than 50
tickets even.The basis is to match all 3 bankers.To find 3 bankers
within 25,you can start by finding first digits of 1,3,4 positions,then
find their positional hot numbers to make bankers.
Oh,well,Actually that's exactly how my online system works.:)
Oh,you can us my digit wheel,matching all 6 positions gives you 325
tickets for a guaranteed 5/6.And 5120 tickets for a guaranteed jackpot.
If you find 4 bankers at any positions,the jackpot only requires 110
tickets.
And if you find any three bankers(regardless of the position
restriction at 1,3,4 positions,the jackpot only requires 392 tickets.
If you find only 2 bankers at any positions,the jackpot requires 1080
tickets,and 1 bankers at any position,the jackpot requires 2500
tickets.
I know many of you are not a digit wheel hooker,so I will post them if
you request it.
LK
Nigel wrote:
| Quote: | This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case
the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a
lot
of time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur,
how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually
is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can
work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if
you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable?
And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you
could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel |
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Lottoking
Guest
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| Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 3:30 am Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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A good lotterypool/syndicate can't have 1771 members.100 members are
what I prefer,and If we choose top 10 predictors predictions of 100
tickets per time,only $10 is required for each.
So far,I haven't seen anyone or organization hold such professional
lotterypool.I think this is very potenial,why no lottery expert get
hands to it?
LK
Nigel wrote:
| Quote: |
Even if what I noticed had any sigificance with regard to future
draws
(and that's an extremely huge if), I think exploiting it would be way
beyond the capabilities of any individual or even a medium sized
syndicate. If every syndicate member were to fill in and submit 100
entries, you'd need 1771 syndicate members. I certainly don't know
1771
people who I'd trust to complete the entries correctly and divvy up
the
winnings afterwards and that includes me - I made a cock-up on my
3-line
entry on Saturday.
I wonder how the managers of a certain pyramid/syndicate scheme carry
out the mechanics.
Evil Nigel |
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Robert Perkis
Guest
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| Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 5:30 am Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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Nigel wrote:
| Quote: |
This is mainly for Paracelsus but I thought I'd post it here in case the
stats were of general interest.
I've just noticed something rather interesting about the draw history
pertaining to the round when I scored 6 from 25. Before I invest a lot
of time analyzing it to death (how often does the phenomenon occur, how
strong is the correlation with getting 6 from 25) I was wondering if
someone could do the calcs on exactly how useful 6 from 25 actually is.
How much would you have to spend to guarantee a jackpot (ok, I can work
that one out) but what sort of percentage guarantee could you get if you
wheeled the 25 numbers to reduce the cost to something affordable? And
what is the minimum percentage expectation of 6 from 25 that you could
drop to to still make a pop at the jackpot viable?
Evil Nigel
|
You can make a reasonably economical (24,6,3,6) and (24,6,3,5)
the 25th number takes the price to another level. Optimal is
the (22,6,3,3)=77 wheel which has a very strong probability of
a 4# win along with the multitude of 3# prizes. Below that the
next best bet is (18,6,4,6)=48 the extra six lines providing
concurrent (18,6,3,3) coverage.
Robert Perkis / http://www.lotto-logix.com |
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Nigel
Guest
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| Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 12:30 pm Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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Robert Perkis wrote:
| Quote: |
You can make a reasonably economical (24,6,3,6) and (24,6,3,5)
the 25th number takes the price to another level. Optimal is
the (22,6,3,3)=77 wheel which has a very strong probability of
a 4# win along with the multitude of 3# prizes. Below that the
next best bet is (18,6,4,6)=48 the extra six lines providing
concurrent (18,6,3,3) coverage.
Robert Perkis / http://www.lotto-logix.com
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Thanks, and that goes for everyone who replied.
I know it's stupid to read too much into a single draw but I revisited
the draw in question and the system actually got 6 in 21 so a 24 number
wheel would be quite acceptable. Gerry's 3 if 6 in 25 (22 tickets)
sounds good also.
I think you've persuaded me to do the analysis - I'll let you know if it
was a one-off fluke or whether there might be something to run with.
Evil Nigel |
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Nigel
Guest
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| Posted: Tue May 10, 2005 7:30 pm Post subject: Re: Pick 25 Trial Question |
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I went back and analysed 52 draws. At one stage it looked promising,
with a correlation significant at the 1% level (2-tailed test). Then it
all went horribly wrong. Over the full 52 draws analysed, there was no
evidence of a significant correlation.
That's not quite the end of it though, the single match-6 and the
handful of match-5s were quite closely clustered. I might do further
investigation another time, but it looks as though I'll have to think of
another way to nail that jackpot.
Evil Nigel |
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