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Bob R
Guest
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 Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 11:32 am Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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Steve Fry <[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: |
If someone can demonstrate fewer sevens than is random, then there must
be a mechanism, and it can be tested experimentally. If all you are looking
at is the result of the roll, then you will need to observe a great many rolls
to be sure that it is not random.
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True, and I guess that's my point. The more specific of an effect your are
testing the less data you need, but you can have a very limited understanding of
the mechanism (I set the dice like this and throw them like this and reduce the
sevens) and still have a conclusive test if you make up for it with more data. |
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Mason
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:21 pm Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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<[email protected]> wrote
| Quote: | So, what does this mean? If you pick up this set and toss it playing
craps "and" you keep the 1-6 on the left die as its' axis and the right
die keeps the 2-5 on axis you will have only 2 chances to throw a 7.
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I will simplify further.
Any *Failure* to meet the threshold that at LEAST 44.4% of all throws stay
"on-axis" for the set described above results in a chance of throwing a seven
GREATER than 16.67%.
--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason
Snipped from a prior post ...
Perhaps a simplification will help.
Change the nomenclature from "on-axis" faces to magic faces.
Paint *any* four faces (2/3 of the faces) on each of two dies the magic color.
The dice are tossed (randomly).
The probable result is ....
(.) both faces show magic color on 4/9 ([2/3] * [2/3]) of the rolls. (44.4%
aprox)
(.) the pips on the faces of the two dies total seven on 1/6 of the rolls.
(16.7% aprox)
These two conditions (color and pip total) are independent.
How the magic faces on each die are selected is irrelevant.
This is the probability of occurrence for random and independent trials. |
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Mr. V
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 1:53 pm Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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That wannabe be math boy, golfer, wows the group with this example of
his mathematical wizardry:
"Take out your home calculator and divide 2 by 8. Most will get
12.5%. "
Uhhhhh, no; sorry, golfer.
The answer is: .25%.
Put on the pointed hat and join ACDOC in the corner.
Danged zealots.
roll dem bones |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sun Mar 20, 2005 9:27 pm Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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"I will simplify further. "
Simple isn't in your skill set Mason.
What I posted referred to an example "A". You have now come back and
said any failure in "A" will throw out what results I have indicated.
Man you are sharp.
If I wanted to talk about the failure to keep the dice on axis I would
have said that.
What I said simple boy is that if someone kept the dice on axis with a
7 avoidance set the chances for a 7 are reduced to 1/8.
Your point about the failure of keeping the dice on axis is well noted.
Why don't you start your own new thread on the subject and the masses
can comment on your superior intellect. However, if you wish to
comment on what I said keep it on point would ya.
I suppose I should concede that you didn't stoop as low as V and make a
big deal of the typo. I'll give you credit for that but not much.
Golfer |
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Richard
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:01 am Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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On 20 Mar 2005 12:56:54 -0800, [email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | What, did V deputize you to the Spelling Police?
Golfer
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No. Some like to stamp out innumeracy. Others illiteracy. I'm in
the latter camp.
Actually, you made such a big deal out of typos, that I couldn't
resist catching you. It was clearly not a typo. Just illiteracy.
Back to the dice setting wars.
Richard |
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Guest
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| Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2005 5:02 am Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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"In point of fact, to have the "small, real edge" that you describe, a
shooter
must exceed that 44.4% of all rolls threshold with only the specified
faces
showing."
Bullshit Mason.
On any toss, if the shooter sets the dice on a 7 avoidance set and
keeps the dice on axis the chances for a 7 are 1/8. End of story.
If your foginess wishes to start another discussion on a grander scale
with consideration of the +44.4% factor you mention we can do that.
Yet that might be best served by another thread.
Next
Golfer |
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Richard
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Mar 21, 2005 8:34 pm Post subject: Re: Ultra Maroon |
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On Sun, 20 Mar 2005 22:16:40 -0600, [email protected] (John Kerr)
wrote:
| Quote: | .....pretty soon, I ain't gonna have nothin
left I can call my own! <grin
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Well, you still got your "dribbler".
Richard |
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