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John Guarnieri
Guest
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 Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2005 12:00 am Post subject: Laying the 4 |
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I bought in with $400.00 at a 10.00 table. I played at least 30 minutes
without loosing a bet. I layed the 4 for 40.00 + 1.00 vig and I collected
19.00 for quite a while. One shooter threw 5 , 7's in a row on the come out
and I was on the no 4. I finally put 10.00 on the hard 4 after I felt the 4
was due and I hit. Lost my 41.000 but picked up 30.00.
Then I started doing come bets with double odds and the shooter would 7 out
just as I did my 3 come bets with the full odds. It seems like I pick up the
small 19.00 wins with the no 4 and loose on the come bets with odds. Oh
well. I also placed the 6 & 8 and did ok with that.
I wound up winning 153.00 and walked.
John G |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Thu Mar 31, 2005 8:15 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On Wed, 30 Mar 2005 19:00:11 -0500, "John Guarnieri"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | I bought in with $400.00 at a 10.00 table. I played at least 30 minutes
without loosing a bet. I layed the 4 for 40.00 + 1.00 vig and I collected
19.00 for quite a while. One shooter threw 5 , 7's in a row on the come out
and I was on the no 4. I finally put 10.00 on the hard 4 after I felt the 4
was due and I hit. Lost my 41.000 but picked up 30.00.
Then I started doing come bets with double odds and the shooter would 7 out
just as I did my 3 come bets with the full odds. It seems like I pick up the
small 19.00 wins with the no 4 and loose on the come bets with odds. Oh
well. I also placed the 6 & 8 and did ok with that.
|
John, you really need to understand that your own results over a
couple of sessions have virtually no predictive value; IOW, you should
not draw any conclusions about the relative efficacy of no 4 vs.
pass/come because you did better in this session with the lay bets.
The mathematics of probability can show you the shape of the
distribution of possible outcomes for a given session, betting a
certain way, but the dice can select for you any of those possible
outcomes, including, of course, extremely unlikely ones.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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John Guarnieri
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 2:03 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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Alan, I understand
| Quote: | you should
not draw any conclusions about the relative efficacy of no 4 vs.
pass/come because you did better in this session with the lay bets.
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If the 4 starts showing I'll go to the no 10. I'll try what ever it takes to
go with the flow of the table till I loose my 400.00 buy in.
I found I can't walk if i'm down to 1/2 of my buy in, I came back from
nothing many times to win back my buy in + a profit. I have also lost all
400.00 but not as many times as I've come back, honest.
Some guys will play "right" all night long even on aan obviously cold table.
I will play right and wrong and use any other tool I have to try and come
back if llosing.
If you just have a hammer in your bag, after awhile everything looks like a
nail. I really feel you should go with your gut and play all your tricks and
stick to what works till it stops working.
John G
"Alan Shank" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | On Wed, 30 Mar 2005 19:00:11 -0500, "John Guarnieri"
[email protected]> wrote:
I bought in with $400.00 at a 10.00 table. I played at least 30 minutes
without loosing a bet. I layed the 4 for 40.00 + 1.00 vig and I collected
19.00 for quite a while. One shooter threw 5 , 7's in a row on the come
out
and I was on the no 4. I finally put 10.00 on the hard 4 after I felt the
4
was due and I hit. Lost my 41.000 but picked up 30.00.
Then I started doing come bets with double odds and the shooter would 7
out
just as I did my 3 come bets with the full odds. It seems like I pick up
the
small 19.00 wins with the no 4 and loose on the come bets with odds. Oh
well. I also placed the 6 & 8 and did ok with that.
John, you really need to understand that your own results over a
couple of sessions have virtually no predictive value; IOW, you should
not draw any conclusions about the relative efficacy of no 4 vs.
pass/come because you did better in this session with the lay bets.
The mathematics of probability can show you the shape of the
distribution of possible outcomes for a given session, betting a
certain way, but the dice can select for you any of those possible
outcomes, including, of course, extremely unlikely ones.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:00 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:14:57 -0500, "John Guarnieri"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | Alan, I understand
you should
not draw any conclusions about the relative efficacy of no 4 vs.
pass/come because you did better in this session with the lay bets.
If the 4 starts showing I'll go to the no 10. I'll try what ever it takes to
go with the flow of the table till I loose my 400.00 buy in.
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Flow of the table, right. Do you really believe that past results
predict future ones?
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 6:15 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On Thu, 31 Mar 2005 18:14:57 -0500, "John Guarnieri"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | I found I can't walk if i'm down to 1/2 of my buy in, I came back from
nothing many times to win back my buy in + a profit. I have also lost all
400.00 but not as many times as I've come back, honest.
Some guys will play "right" all night long even on aan obviously cold table.
I will play right and wrong and use any other tool I have to try and come
back if llosing.
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I, too, have come back from 1/2 or more down and ended up even or with
a profit, and I never change anything except odds multiple. Your
chances of coming back are just the same if you keep playing the same
way as they are if you try to "follow the flow" of the table, which,
of course, exists only in the past.
| Quote: |
If you just have a hammer in your bag, after awhile everything looks like a
nail. I really feel you should go with your gut and play all your tricks and
stick to what works till it stops working.
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As I asked in the other post, do you really believe that there are
"table conditions" that mean the probabilities are different?
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 01, 2005 11:30 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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"As I asked in the other post, do you really believe that there are
"table conditions" that mean the probabilities are different?
Cheers,
Alan Shank"
Loaded question. No surprise there. Let's call table conditions table
trends.
Do they exist? One loaded question deserves another.
A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
Alan, a trend does not change the probabilites. They are fixed in
stone (unless using DI skills). A trend does not change probabilities
but is a variance. A term I think you like to use. Variances ( I like
trends better myself) can and do happen. Some are large, some are
small. People can identify them while they are going on and profit
from them. They exist. Probabilities exist. Is this a great planet
or what?
Golfer |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:30 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On 1 Apr 2005 15:17:09 -0800, [email protected] wrote:
| Quote: |
"As I asked in the other post, do you really believe that there are
"table conditions" that mean the probabilities are different?
Cheers,
Alan Shank"
Loaded question. No surprise there. Let's call table conditions table
trends.
Do they exist? One loaded question deserves another.
A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
Alan, a trend does not change the probabilites. They are fixed in
stone (unless using DI skills). A trend does not change probabilities
but is a variance. A term I think you like to use. Variances ( I like
trends better myself) can and do happen. Some are large, some are
small. People can identify them while they are going on and profit
from them. They exist. Probabilities exist. Is this a great planet
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Golfer, we have been over this again and again. You just don't get it.
If a trend (or variance, if you will) does not indicate that the
probabilities are different than "perfect 36," then there is no point
in betting with this trend, because the trend is nothing more than a
somewhat unusual (or not even unusual, but "eye-catching" for some
reason) distribution flowing from the normal probabilities. The
chances of any distribution of n rolls being repeated for the next n
rolls are the same.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Mr. V
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Apr 02, 2005 5:45 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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All craps players must posit a methodology to determine when to enter a
craps game.
Some, the so-called "Math Boyz," objectively feel it makes absolutely
no difference when you enter.
Others (e.g. Patrick players and the somewhat superstitious) put great
importance on tying your entrance to a favorable trend.
FWIW, I agree that the math dictates perceived trends need not
continue; I also believe that it makes little sense to jump on an ice
cold table and make aggressive right side bets.
roll dem bones |
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Mason
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 12:55 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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"Mr. V" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | All craps players must posit a methodology to determine when to enter a
craps game.
Some, the so-called "Math Boyz," objectively feel it makes absolutely
no difference when you enter.
Others (e.g. Patrick players and the somewhat superstitious) put great
importance on tying your entrance to a favorable trend.
FWIW, I agree that the math dictates perceived trends need not
continue; I also believe that it makes little sense to jump on an ice
cold table and make aggressive right side bets.
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IMNHO (In My Never Humble Opinion), superstitious thinking is never "harmless"
because avoidance of critical thinking is insidious and can lead to the
thinker's habituation to lack of effort. Reevaluation of assumptions is worthy
of periodic attention, but is a useless activity for superstitiously obtained
conclusions and therefore does not occur.
--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:50 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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Good reply V. I was getting worried about you in noting your last few
posts.
I read Mason's response below and have finally concluded his day job is
writing tax code for the gov't. If not tax code some other regulatory
code. I hope he never gets lost and needs to ask for directions. Can
you picture that?
Later |
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Mason
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 2:55 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | I read Mason's response below and have finally concluded his day job is
writing tax code for the gov't.
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Golpher has limited reading comprehension?
Say it ain't so! |
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Mr. V
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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I lean more toward the trend followers than the pure math boy camp, but
my feet are planted firmly in neither.
Like an agnostic: "Oh god, if there is a god, save my soul, if I have a
soul."
Kind of like hedging a bet.
roll dem bones |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:00 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On 2 Apr 2005 09:41:15 -0800, "Mr. V" <[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | All craps players must posit a methodology to determine when to enter a
craps game.
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When they get to the table?
| Quote: |
Some, the so-called "Math Boyz," objectively feel it makes absolutely
no difference when you enter.
Others (e.g. Patrick players and the somewhat superstitious) put great
importance on tying your entrance to a favorable trend.
FWIW, I agree that the math dictates perceived trends need not
continue; I also believe that it makes little sense to jump on an ice
cold table and make aggressive right side bets.
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Your two statements cannot logically co-exist unless you also believe
it makes little sense to jump on a "hot" table and make aggressive
right-side bets. If "perceived trends need not continue" then there is
absolutely no difference between those two situations, or any other,
for that matter.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Guest
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| Posted: Sun Apr 03, 2005 11:50 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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Man, I can't believe this. I am agreeing with V.
Although it might be the "right" thing to consider stepping up to a
cold table without fear, I would not do so. This is of course
qualiying the statement that I didn't have the dice. In fact, at cold
tables I have actually passed the dice or shot the from the don't.
There is nothing "noble" to step up to a table that is in a negative
mode and start tossing cash al over the place.
Yes Alan, the current "trend" may end at any second. However, I would
rather dabble on the darkside in that scenario first.
Golfer |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Apr 04, 2005 4:35 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On 3 Apr 2005 16:49:41 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | Man, I can't believe this. I am agreeing with V.
Although it might be the "right" thing to consider stepping up to a
cold table without fear, I would not do so.
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It is not necessarily the "right" thing to do; there is just no
logical reason not to.
| Quote: |
There is nothing "noble" to step up to a table that is in a negative
mode and start tossing cash al over the place.
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How the Heeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeeel did the concept of "nobility"
get into this?
| Quote: | Yes Alan, the current "trend" may end at any second. However, I would
rather dabble on the darkside in that scenario first.
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No problem with that. The don't is just as likely to do well as the
rightside, at all times, regardless of the recent "history" of the
table.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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