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Pokerdawgg
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 Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:00 am Post subject: Odds Questions |
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Hey everyone, I'm new here. I have some questions about odds that are
beyond my math knowledge. What are the odds of hitting 3 winning Any Craps
bets in a row? Assuming you're betting the Any on every roll. I kow the
odds of hitting on each roll, I just don't know how you would figure how
frequently 3 Craps in a row will occur. Also, anyone know how to figure
the odds of hitting 3 hard 6 or 8's before a 7 out or an easy 6 or 8. Only
betting either the 6 or the 8, not both.
Thanks, everyone.
CJ |
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acpa
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 2:25 am Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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I'm not a math guy, but I believe the odds of rolling three craps number in
a row is calculated by multiplying the odds of rolling a craps 1 time by
itself three times.
In other words 1/9 x 1/9 1/9 or 1/729 or expressed as a percentage as .137%,
Noah
"Pokerdawgg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:8fcd[email protected]...
| Quote: | Hey everyone, I'm new here. I have some questions about odds that are
beyond my math knowledge. What are the odds of hitting 3 winning Any Craps
bets in a row? Assuming you're betting the Any on every roll. I kow the
odds of hitting on each roll, I just don't know how you would figure how
frequently 3 Craps in a row will occur. Also, anyone know how to figure
the odds of hitting 3 hard 6 or 8's before a 7 out or an easy 6 or 8. Only
betting either the 6 or the 8, not both.
Thanks, everyone.
CJ
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Pokerdawgg
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 7:10 am Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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Ok. What does that translate into as far as rolls go? Like "You should see
this happen about once in every X number of rolls". I don't know how to
translate the decimal into a number of rolls frequency. How often is
137% in number of rolls?
Thanks,
CJ |
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Pokerdawgg
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 7:10 am Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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Ok. What does that translate into as far as rolls go? Like "You should see
this happen about once in every X number of rolls". I don't know how to
translate the decimal into a number of rolls frequency. How often is
137% in number of rolls?
Thanks,
CJ |
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Mason
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 7:30 am Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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"Pokerdawgg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:d136[email protected]...
| Quote: | Ok. What does that translate into as far as rolls go? Like "You should see
this happen about once in every X number of rolls". I don't know how to
translate the decimal into a number of rolls frequency. How often is
137% in number of rolls?
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The original response posted the probability as 1/729. This means that this
will occur one time in every 729 rolls on AVERAGE. It can also be expressed as
odds of 728 to 1 against or as a percent of probability of 0.137% (note the
decimal and the fact that this is a percentage).
Try to quote the post to which you are responding in whole or in part when you
post (as I have done). This is standard Usenet etiquette and increases the
clarity of your posting.
This is the post that you should have quoted (and read more carefully).
"I'm not a math guy, but I believe the odds of rolling three craps number in
a row is calculated by multiplying the odds of rolling a craps 1 time by
itself three times.
In other words 1/9 x 1/9 1/9 or 1/729 or expressed as a percentage as .137%,"
Noah is indicating that the odds of winning chances of winning a single any
craps bet is (1/9) or (1 chance in 9). The odds of any event happening more
than one time in a row is computed by the probability of that event multiplied
by the number of events in the sequence (3 consecutive rolls) (1/9)(1/9)(1/9) =
(1/9*9*9) = (1/729). The other numbers are just restatement of the same facts
in different ways.
Another example
The chance of tossing three heads in a row with a fair coin are (1/2)(1/2)(1/2)
= (1/2*2*2) = (1/ = fair odds of 7 to 1 against = chance of occurrence is =
..125 = expressed as a percentage 12.5%
I hope this helps.
--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 3:55 pm Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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On Thu, 07 Apr 2005 21:58:28 -0400, "Pokerdawgg"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | Hey everyone, I'm new here. I have some questions about odds that are
beyond my math knowledge. What are the odds of hitting 3 winning Any Craps
bets in a row? Assuming you're betting the Any on every roll. I kow the
odds of hitting on each roll, I just don't know how you would figure how
frequently 3 Craps in a row will occur.
|
If the probability of an event e occurring is p, the probability of it
occurring n times is p^n, so the probability of 3 craps numbers in a
row is 4/36^3 = .00137. You can turn a probability into an "odds
against" by inverting it (1/p) and subtracting 1. 1/.00137 = 729, so
this should occur once every 729 sets of 3 rolls, or odds of 728 to 1
against this happening.
| Quote: | Also, anyone know how to figure
the odds of hitting 3 hard 6 or 8's before a 7 out or an easy 6 or 8. Only
betting either the 6 or the 8, not both.
|
Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six, six ways to roll a seven and four ways to roll an
easy six. Three in a row, then, would be .1^3 = .001 or 999 to 1
against.
A caution: don't interpret these figures to mean that, after you have
seen two craps (or hard sixes) in a row, the third is extremely
unlikely, because of the long odds against getting three in a row.
After two in a row have occurred, the probability of getting the third
is the same as the probability of getting the first one, or any single
occurrence.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Pokerdawgg
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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<Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six>
I thought the probabbility of a hardways would be the same as a 2 or 12
since there is only 1 way to make any of them, I thought the individual
probability would be 1 in 36? Am I missing something? I hope so, I like 1
in 10 a lot better.
Thanks.
CJ |
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Pokerdawgg
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 5:50 pm Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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<Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six>
I thought the probabbility of a hardways would be the same as a 2 or 12
since there is only 1 way to make any of them, I thought the individual
probability would be 1 in 36? Am I missing something? I hope so, I like 1
in 10 a lot better.
Thanks.
CJ |
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Mason
Guest
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| Posted: Fri Apr 08, 2005 9:05 pm Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason
"Pokerdawgg" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:a2c7[email protected]...
| Quote: | Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six
I thought the probabbility of a hardways would be the same as a 2 or 12
since there is only 1 way to make any of them, I thought the individual
probability would be 1 in 36? Am I missing something? I hope so, I like 1
in 10 a lot better.
Thanks.
CJ
The hardway bet is evaluated by using ONLY those rolls which cause it to win and |
cause it lose.
The hardway bet is evaluated by using ONLY those rolls which cause it to win and
cause it lose.
How may ways are there to roll the number? How many of those ways are hard?
In order to understand the odds, you must know the answer to the following two
questions.
How may ways are there to roll the number? How many of those ways are hard?
The true chance of winning is (Number of Hard Rolls)/(Total Ways to Roll The
Number).
You should do some of your own study on these matters so that you can make your
own simple probability calculations. I have an excellent resource to recommend
to you.
(1)
Go to the url:
http://www.cloudcitysoftware.com/
Download and install WINCRAPS (it is shareware and free to try)
The help file is an EXCELLENT hypertext guide to general information on craps in
addition to how to play the wonderful simulation.
(2)
Go to the url:
http://mathforum.org/library/drmath/sets/mid_probability.html
Bookmark it as a favorite. Begin to review ALL of the lessons that you find
there. This will help you with the basic probability mathematics that you lack.
(3)
Go to the url:
http://krigman.casinocitytimes.com/
Explore the authors archives with the keyword "craps". These essays discuss
various aspects of the crap game from a mathematical point of view. The math
isn't difficult or extensive, but you should do (2) before (3).
I hope this helps.
--
Onward thru the fog,
Mason |
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Makhtarfan
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 8:40 am Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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"Alan Shank" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | On Thu, 07 Apr 2005 21:58:28 -0400, "Pokerdawgg"
[email protected]> wrote:
Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six, six ways to roll a seven and four ways to roll an
easy six. Three in a row, then, would be .1^3 = .001 or 999 to 1
against.
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Wouldn't that be 1/11 then? Or did you mean 1:10? |
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Alan Shank
Guest
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| Posted: Sat Apr 09, 2005 5:41 pm Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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On Fri, 08 Apr 2005 13:49:10 -0400, "Pokerdawgg"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six
I thought the probabbility of a hardways would be the same as a 2 or 12
since there is only 1 way to make any of them, I thought the individual
probability would be 1 in 36? Am I missing something? I hope so, I like 1
in 10 a lot better.
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You are confusing the hardway bets with one-roll bets. The hardway
bets are not resolved until either the number bet or a seven is
rolled. So, it's one way hard versus n ways easy plus six ways seven.
I should have said 1/11 for the probability; odds are 10:1 against.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Gregg Cattanach
Guest
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| Posted: Mon Apr 11, 2005 2:50 pm Post subject: Re: Odds Questions |
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Pokerdawgg wrote:
| Quote: | Probability of hitting a hard six is just 1/10, since there's one way
to roll a hard six
I thought the probabbility of a hardways would be the same as a 2 or
12 since there is only 1 way to make any of them, I thought the
individual probability would be 1 in 36? Am I missing something? I
hope so, I like 1 in 10 a lot better.
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You are confusing the odds of throwing double-4s on the next roll and the
odds of actually winning a hard-8 bet. Two different things.
--
Gregg C. |
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