MollysPoker.com

[copacetic]

Ok, I'm sure many of you have heard of the Illustrious 18:

http://www.bjmath.com/bjmath/tcindex/i18index.htm

Basically, it's an ordered list of the most important modifications you
can make to basic strategy, in case you feel the need to make any
modifications at all.

Insurance is most important, 16 vs 10 is next, etc.

When I read Stanford Wong's Professional Blackjack, he made reference
to this list, and I got a little nervous about one issue:

Wong said something about how modifying BS only improves your flat
betting win rate by a small amount, and most of it is due to insurance,
16 vs 10, and 15 vs 10. Ok, I'm fine with that. But what if you're
not flat betting?

In that case, the importance of these modifications is *magnified* by
betting more when the count is high. After all, insurance saves you a
lot of money (on average) when you have a +5 true count since you're
probably betting a lot of money.

On the other hand, an index number of -3 doesn't do much for you, b/c
for that to change your play, you'd have to have a low count, and so
you'd be betting a small amount.

So if two different BS modification save you equal amounts under flat
betting, then the one with an index number of 1 is probably much more
important than the one with a -1.

Did the makers of the Illustrious 18 take that into account when they
ranked the different BS modifications?

Thanks!!

[copacetic]

Anybody? Anybody?

[Victoria]

For some good answers, why not post your message on Stanford Wong's
free message board at bj21.com

[Bob R]

"copacetic" <[email protected]> wrote:

[Victoria]

You will look like a moron who does not know how to play especially to
the players at the table who do not know how to play.
What you did not say is are you making this move during a very high
count or not.
No matter what, you have probably alerted the pit to your pressence.
Low count you are a moron and have bought some time perhaps, but be
careful because you do not know exactly how long they might watch you
for. You have no idea if they knew the count when you made this move,
you only know that now they are watching and evaluating you. So if you
did this for cover you now might have to make cover moves for the next
half hour or so because the boys upstairs might be running an
evaluation program on you. Anyway, in my opinion doing this seems to
make no sense.
Super high count, especially in SD and DD, near the end of a session
and I get 10,10 vs a dealer 5, and I have split several times. Then I
play a few more hands and have a dinner appointment.

[copacetic]

Cool! Thanks.

On a related note, do you think that making a weird play (such as
splitting 10s against a 6) makes you look like a really good counter to
the pit boss (which you don't want) or like some moron who doesn't know
how to play?

[copacetic]

Thanks, Victoria.

I meant doing this during a very high count. I think you need a TC of
+4. I wasn't planning on splitting 10s at an inappropriate time.