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SteveA · Guest

The Wizards, Pacers, and Bulls are locked in a very tight battle for
the #4, #5, and #6 seeds in the Eastern Conference. Even though Boston
has a worse record than those three teams, they will likely get the #3
seed by virtue of being a division winner.

In the opening round, the #4 seed will play the #5 seed, as always,
with the #4 seed getting home court advantage. The #3 seed (Boston)
will play the #6 seed, but the #6 seed will get home court advantage in
that series by virtue of better record.

The winner of the 4/5 battle has to play Miami in the second round...an
unenviable task. The winner of the 3/6 battle likely plays Detroit --
not easy but probably better than going up against the Heat.

So what does this all mean? Well, if you are the Wizards, do you want
to finish 4th, 5th, or 6th? One would think 4th. But that will be
tough, Chicago is a game ahead of the Wiz and has an easier remaining
schedule. But let's look at what happens if you finish 4th:

-- You play the #5 team -- probably the red hot Bulls -- in the 1st
round
-- if you win that you get Miami.

What if the Wizards finish 5th?

-- they play the #4 team -- probably the red hot Bulls -- in the 1st
round, and Chicago gets home court advantage.
-- if you win that you get Miami.

What if the Wizards finish 6th?
-- they play the #3 Celtics, arguably weaker than Chicago, AND they
get home court advantage
-- if they win that they play Detroit (or maybe they get lucky and
Cleveland has upset Detroit in the 1st round, not likely but possible;
I don't see Miami getting upset in the 1st round)

I think you can definitely make a case that the Wizards are better off
finishing 6th than 4th or 5th! Certainly better off finishing 6th than
5th, and as I said 4th is rather difficult to reach anyway because
Chicago has a pretty easy remaining schedule and a game advantage.

So in my opinion, the Wizards, who just celebrated clinching their
first playoff spot in years in their last game and may well be somewhat
hungover from the celebration or not taking this game too seriously,
probably have no incentive or need to win this game and MAY be better
off by losing! Their goal this year was to make the playoff and they
reached that goal Wednesday.

Meanwhile, the Cavaliers, who are getting 6 points, NEED this win.
THey haven't yet clinched a playoff spot, and they also are battling
Philly for the #7/#8 position (#8 has to play Miami in the 1st round).

So in my opinion, there is MUCH more motivation for the Cavs to win
this game tonight, and there may in fact be motivation for the Wizards
to lose. I'm not saying they'll throw the game, but given that they
just clinched the playoff spot, they may not give an all-out effort
tonight.

And the Cavs are getting 6 points.

FWIW, I'm on Cavs +6 -102 (Canbet)

Atlanta Ranger · Guest

I saw the score and it may be a sweat, but outstanding analysis.

Gary Collard · Guest

In both conferences teams have to be, although not admitting as much,
jockeying for that 6 spot to get the easiest first round matchup of the
roadies.

SteveA wrote:

Guest · Posted: Sat Apr 16, 2005 4:02 am Post subject: Re: An NBA Thought

SteveA wrote:

John A Witzke · Guest

more fodder for those of us that can't stand the nba...what a stupid
fucking playoff system!...the league is a shell of its former self, just
like pro wrestling, sportscenter, and metallica

Gary Collard · Guest

John A Witzke wrote: