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John Griffin
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 Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 2:01 pm Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
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"IXL Software" <[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | "John Griffin" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
"IXL Software" <[email protected]> wrote:
"John Griffin" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
"IXL Software" <[email protected]> wrote:
"John Griffin" <[email protected]> wrote
"IXL Software" <[email protected]> wrote:
It has often been said here and elsewhere that the only
way to improve or reduce the odds against a player
winning a lottery jackpot is to purchase more tickets
(chances). Is that really so?
Yes, it has often been said, and yes, it's clearly so.
The reasoning goes something like this:
If I buy 1 ticket on a 649 lottery draw, that ticket has
odds of 13,983,816:1 of matching the jackpot numbers.
Against.
If I buy 10 tickets for the very same draw, my overall
odds now become 1,398,381.6:1. If I buy 1000 tickets for
the very same draw, my overall odds now become
13,983.816:1...and so on.
This logic is essentially saying that I can have a
1,000% improvement of the odds in my favour by covering
only a very tiny percentage (0.00715%) of the possible
outcomes. Don't those numbers look just a little out of
whack...in fact extremely disproportionate?
Yes--1000 times is 100000%. Other than that, no.
Consider this: it is entirely possible to purchase
13,983,815 different tickets and *still* not win the
jackpot! You will of course have a hell of a lot of
smaller prizes...but not the big one. Imagine the
embarrassment.
You could write a book and do the talk show circuit.
Assuming that the minimum match of winning numbers must
be at least 3, it is theoretically possible to purchase
13,723,192 tickets and not win so much as a goddamn
penny! Incredible as it may seem, that's over 98%
coverage of all possible outcomes with nothing to show
for it. I have no idea of how one could go about
purposely trying to win nothing on such a large wager.
In this case, losing everything seems more daunting a
task than winning anything. Strange game...is it not?
No. That one possible outcome might seem "strange" and
make a good conversation piece, but its probability is
well defined.
Do we begin to see how this "more tickets" logic breaks
down pretty rapidly?
If you "see" that, don't ever play the lottery.
This is why I believe that the common basic
assumption is incorrect. You simply
cannot use the aggregate total of chances to properly
calculate the overall odds. You end up with a distorted
picture that is out of phase with reality.
No. There are 13983816 possible outcomes (ignoring
permutations). If you have one ticket, there is exactly
one good outcome. If you have N, there are exactly N
good ones. There is no mystery.
I believe that the correct way to interpret the odds is
to say that each ticket in play has a *discrete and
equal chance*. In other words, if you play
1,000 tickets, you have 1,000 *separate (but equal)*
chances of 1 in 13,983,816 at the
jackpot...
True.
Case closed.
Obviously you didn't understand what I said. I didn't mean
for it to scare you into snipping it, but thanks for the
laughs.
The rest of this lame attempt to ridicule me as some kind
of a newbie fool is totally unnecessary. File it in your
deepest body cavity. I need your confrontational
disposition about as much as a cow needs bigger tits.
ROTMFFLMMFAO!
Find a better way of saying you didn't understand most of
what I said and you can't argue with the little you did,
i.e., a way that doesn't make you look like some umbrageous
little kid. You may not be a "newbie fool," but you're the
equivalent--the only difference being a little more "time
in grade."
I said you aren't goofy but your ideas sure as hell are.
That certainly isn't ridicule, but apparently I said it a
little too hastily. You have no idea what you're talking
about--speaking of "case closed."
Buying more tickets will give you as many more chances to
win the jackpot. Nothing else, including the superstitions
you mentioned and any you left out, will increase your
chances of winning. The playslip I've been using since the
inaptly named "mega millions" started, any five "quick
picks," and any five lines you can choose by applying all
the "filters" you mentioned and all the "filters" you
didn't mention all have precisely the same probability of
winning. You may either try to refute that statement; or
print this on heavy paper, roll it into a tube and use it
as a suppository; or cry your eyes out, but you can't
change the facts.
Just play wheels--help build the jackpot faster. I will
thank you sincerely for your contribution if I win.
There you have it folks. Mr. Griffin has just kindly
explained everything you need to know about playing the
lottery. Any further discussion is futile. We can all just
pack up and get the hell outta here. Last one out can kill
the lights. That will probably be Bob the janitor.
You could have saved time and said the whole thing with one
word: "Waaaaaaaaaaaaaaa!" The tantrum was entertaining, but
on the other hand, why don't you try to refute what I said?
You just said it yourself Bub...waste of time. Trying to have
a rational and productive conversation with the likes of you
is like trying to accomplish the same with Charles Manson.
|
That's incomplete. You have exactly the same problem trying to
have a rational and productive conversation with anyone.
A rational and productive conversation would mean that you try to
refute my comments, including this one, about your mass of
misconceptions. Furthermore, a rational and productive
conversation would not start with you asserting that those you want
to converse with are "small minds."
| Quote: | Weren't you part of the Family before you decided to hide out
in the foothills of the Cascades? Wouldn't find it terribly
surprising to see your name and mug on America's Most Wanted
some Saturday night.
CLICK!
|
So, you agree with everything I said, and you're mad as hell and
you're not going to take it any more, right?
Right. By the way, that tantrum was pretty sorry compared to the
first one, except that it was about equally infantile.
Get a job. |
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IXL Software
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
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|
"Paracelsus" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: |
"Nik Barker" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Paul
|
| I know you'll treat this with the same contempt as you do everyone
| else's, but I don't care what you think anyway, so I'll continue.
Party on!
|
| You disappeared from here a long time ago, the reason for which or part
| of it was your illness. I am genuinely sorry for your ill-health. And I
| genuinely hope your ill-heath is over.
Paul says he's been diagnosed with multiple sclerosis, an incurable and
progressive degenerative neurological disorder. Cycles of relapse and
remission will sometimes give way to a secondary progressive slide into
creeping paralysis, loss of speech and respiratory failure. It's a
f**king
dreadful way to die, and I wouldn't wish it on anyone. (This is a worst
case scenario. The condition is highly variable and unpredictable and
may,
in limine, have little or no effect on life expectancy.)
|
I find these totally unnecessary remarks both personally offensive and
extremely objectionable. Our silly little rivalry here is one thing, but
this goes way over the line of deeply personal intrusion. How is this even
remotely related to the topic of this thread? |
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IXL Software
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 5:02 pm Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
|
|
"Nik Barker" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | Paul
I know you'll treat this with the same contempt as you do everyone
else's, but I don't care what you think anyway, so I'll continue.
|
Makes perfect sense. You don't care but you'll continue anyway. I'm
beginning to fear that there's something seriously wrong with the air and
water over there.
| Quote: | You disappeared from here a long time ago, the reason for which or part
of it was your illness. I am genuinely sorry for your ill-health. And I
genuinely hope your ill-heath is over.
But then you came back in here. I really wonder why. Not that I want
you to answer that pondering of mine, it's just to me it doesn't make
any sense.
|
First of all, my reasons for either leaving or returning to this place are
absolutely none of your business. I don't need to justify my activities to
you or anyone else. Clear?
| Quote: | Ever since you re-appeared you have displayed nothing but anger,
frustration, foul language, selective hearing, selective analysis. You
always maintain that it's you that has to put up with all the spleen
being vented in here, but always, always, always fail to recognise that
not only do you dish it out in vast quantities, but that you begin it.
You never accept responsibility for it.
|
This could easily be a generic description that applies to over 90% of the
regulars here. Make sure you notify each of them that they qualify for your
distinguished award of recognition. I'm sure they'll be just as pleased as I
am.
| Quote: | Robert isn't perfect, none of are. And probably most in here, would
admit to that, but there'd always be one notable exception. You.
If you don't like it in here, then sod off, and go and chew your wasps
elsewhere.
Ta
Nik
|
It seems readily apparent that you have no interest in the civil and
*on-topic* reply I made to your first post in this thread a few days ago.
Instead, you choose to devote your attention to the disruptive and off-topic
crap that was initiated, I'll remind you, by everyone's favourite
shit-disturber, Carlin The Cretin. I lashed out at that miserable SOB and
felt perfectly justified in doing so. Try directing your self-righteous
indignation at the real offender here.
Unfortunately, a man I have always admired, respected, supported and
considered a friend got caught in the crossfire. I was trying to make an
important point with some harsh remarks that I now regret making. I
sincerely apologize here and now to Robert Perkis for my offensive outburst
that was fuelled by misdirected anger.
Paul McCoy |
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Gerry
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
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|
"Nick UK" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
..> Yet *another* example of stomach-churning arrogance by a 2-faced lying
Hey Harry !
Can you slip this mongrel a bone to gnaw on ? |
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Nick UK
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
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|
"IXL Software" wrote..
| Quote: |
It seems readily apparent that you have no interest in the civil and
*on-topic* reply I made to your first post in this thread a few days ago.
Instead, you choose to devote your attention to the disruptive and
off-topic
crap that was initiated, I'll remind you, by everyone's favourite
shit-disturber, Carlin The Cretin. I lashed out at that miserable SOB and
felt perfectly justified in doing so. Try directing your self-righteous
indignation at the real offender here.
|
*You* are the real offender here McCoy. *You* are the real shit disturber!
It was *you* who made the unfounded accusation against me. An accusation
that you cannot prove, simply because there is no proof! You are a
confounded, well established fkn *liar* and you know it!
Had you not made the accusation against me, none of this would have have
occurred and most folks here will be well aware of that fact by now.
| Quote: | Unfortunately, a man I have always admired, respected, supported and
considered a friend got caught in the crossfire. I was trying to make an
important point with some harsh remarks that I now regret making. I
sincerely apologize here and now to Robert Perkis for my offensive
outburst
that was fuelled by misdirected anger.
Paul McCoy
|
Sincerely apologise? You don't know the meaning of sincerity. You are an
insincere, arrogant, crawling fkn creep and a 2-faced lying bastard!
Nick. |
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Nick UK
Guest
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| Posted: Wed Apr 13, 2005 6:03 pm Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
|
|
"IXL Software" wrote..
| Quote: |
I find these totally unnecessary remarks both personally offensive and
extremely objectionable. Our silly little rivalry here is one thing, but
this goes way over the line of deeply personal intrusion.
|
Would this also be a deeply personal intrusion and considered objectionable
by any person you aimed it at? You remember..
| Quote: | Shall I tell everyone the *true* story about your clumsy attempt to
fraudulently obtain a software unlock code?
|
Or is it only Paul McCoy that can be deeply offended by things posted here?
One rule for McCoy, another rule for the rest?
Yet *another* example of stomach-churning arrogance by a 2-faced lying
bastard!
Nick. |
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IXL Software
Guest
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| Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 4:01 am Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
|
|
"Nick UK" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: |
"IXL Software" wrote..
I find these totally unnecessary remarks both personally offensive and
extremely objectionable. Our silly little rivalry here is one thing, but
this goes way over the line of deeply personal intrusion.
Would this also be a deeply personal intrusion and considered
objectionable by any person you aimed it at? You remember..
Shall I tell everyone the *true* story about your clumsy attempt to
fraudulently obtain a software unlock code?
Or is it only Paul McCoy that can be deeply offended by things posted
here?
One rule for McCoy, another rule for the rest?
Yet *another* example of stomach-churning arrogance by a 2-faced lying
bastard!
Nick.
|
This fkn genius doesn't seem to realize that he has done and *continues* to
do far more damage to himself than I could ever hope to do by purposeful
design.
I posted a lengthy message here on Feb.5/05 under the thread "Be Advised".
He has chosen to pull one particular sentence out of that context which
simply said,
"Shall I tell everyone the *true* story about your clumsy attempt to
fraudulently obtain a software unlock code?"
This was in response to an unprovoked personal attack he had made on my name
and IXL Software in not one, but a *series* of slanderous posts that had
already gone on for several days. I published that statement once and once
only. That was almost 70 days ago now. Since that time, he *himself* has
foolishly repeated that statement innumerable times in practically every
thread that has appeared in this newsgroup...no matter what the topic. Look
at what he's doing in this thread for instance.
I am merely ill. He is truly sick. |
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IXL Software
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 14, 2005 4:01 am Post subject: Re: Reducing The Odds |
|
|
"Nick UK" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: |
"IXL Software" wrote..
It seems readily apparent that you have no interest in the civil and
*on-topic* reply I made to your first post in this thread a few days ago.
Instead, you choose to devote your attention to the disruptive and
off-topic
crap that was initiated, I'll remind you, by everyone's favourite
shit-disturber, Carlin The Cretin. I lashed out at that miserable SOB and
felt perfectly justified in doing so. Try directing your self-righteous
indignation at the real offender here.
*You* are the real offender here McCoy. *You* are the real shit
disturber! It was *you* who made the unfounded accusation against me. An
accusation that you cannot prove, simply because there is no proof! You
are a confounded, well established fkn *liar* and you know it!
Had you not made the accusation against me, none of this would have have
occurred and most folks here will be well aware of that fact by now.
Unfortunately, a man I have always admired, respected, supported and
considered a friend got caught in the crossfire. I was trying to make an
important point with some harsh remarks that I now regret making. I
sincerely apologize here and now to Robert Perkis for my offensive
outburst
that was fuelled by misdirected anger.
Paul McCoy
Sincerely apologise? You don't know the meaning of sincerity. You are an
insincere, arrogant, crawling fkn creep and a 2-faced lying bastard!
Nick.
|
BWA-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA
Oh-oh...now he's calling me a creep. RUN FOR YOUR LIVES!! Total meltdown
appears to be imminent.
BWA-HAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHAHA |
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