| View previous topic :: View next topic |
| Author |
Message |
MODiceDealer
Guest
|
 Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
 |
|
On Apr 1 2005 6:17 PM, golfer711 wrote:
| Quote: | A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
|
It doesn't take a lump like me to verify that trends exist. I've been
dealing for less than a year. You've probably seen more rolls of the dice
in your life than I have. I think I also said that I didn't put any stock
into their predictive value.
I don't think the "math guys" are denying that trends exist. They are
just doubting their usefulness for betting purposes.
MDD
---
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com |
|
| Back to top |
|
 |
Alan Shank
Guest
|
| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
On Wed, 20 Apr 2005 05:37:04 -0700, "MODiceDealer"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | On Apr 1 2005 6:17 PM, golfer711 wrote:
A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
It doesn't take a lump like me to verify that trends exist. I've been
dealing for less than a year. You've probably seen more rolls of the dice
in your life than I have. I think I also said that I didn't put any stock
into their predictive value.
|
You seem to understand that a trend is not a "thing" at all. It is
only an observation of an apparent pattern in a random distribution.
As such, it has no predictive value whatsoever. "Identifying a trend
before it is over" is nothing more than observing an apparent pattern
which then continues, the probability of which is no different than
any other time. Golfer cannot grasp this concept. He is not alone.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Cymbal Man Freq.
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:01 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
The probability of driving a car succussfully between the cones in a
construction zone can be abruptly changed if sirens and flashing lights from a
squad car appear in your rear view mirror.
"Alan Shank" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | On Wed, 20 Apr 2005 05:37:04 -0700, "MODiceDealer"
[email protected]> wrote:
On Apr 1 2005 6:17 PM, golfer711 wrote:
A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
It doesn't take a lump like me to verify that trends exist. I've been
dealing for less than a year. You've probably seen more rolls of the dice
in your life than I have. I think I also said that I didn't put any stock
into their predictive value.
You seem to understand that a trend is not a "thing" at all. It is
only an observation of an apparent pattern in a random distribution.
As such, it has no predictive value whatsoever. "Identifying a trend
before it is over" is nothing more than observing an apparent pattern
which then continues, the probability of which is no different than
any other time. Golfer cannot grasp this concept. He is not alone.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 3:01 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
"apparent pattern"
Alan, the above is a thing. Sorry.
You confuse the point. I assign no defined, guaranteed predictive
value.
My point was that there are times when the "apparent pattern" continues
past the observation point of it happening. Those who wish to do so
may try to participate in it.
Sometimes it works and other times it does not.
Golfer |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Richard
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:03 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
On 21 Apr 2005 07:23:26 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | My point was that there are times when the "apparent pattern" continues
past the observation point of it happening. Those who wish to do so
may try to participate in it.
Sometimes it works and other times it does not.
|
And you can never know which it will be!
Richard |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Alan Shank
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 7:02 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
On 21 Apr 2005 07:23:26 -0700, [email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | "apparent pattern"
Alan, the above is a thing. Sorry.
You confuse the point. I assign no defined, guaranteed predictive
value.
|
There is no predictive value, period, guaranteed or not. You confuse
yourself.
| Quote: |
My point was that there are times when the "apparent pattern" continues
past the observation point of it happening. Those who wish to do so
may try to participate in it.
|
Yes, there are such times, exactly as often as predicted by the
probability of that pattern occurring for n rolls. Therefore,
following this "apparent pattern" has zero utility - zero. Period.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Cymbal Man Freq.
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 9:02 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
Square root of minus 1 is 1i.
Now, where'd those bi-focals go, Cyclops?
"Alan Shank" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]
| Quote: |
Yes, there are such times, exactly as often as predicted by the
probability of that pattern occurring for n rolls. Therefore,
following this "apparent pattern" has zero utility - zero. Period.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:02 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
MDD, I don't think you are a lump at all.
Golfer |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
MODiceDealer
Guest
|
| Posted: Sat Apr 23, 2005 5:38 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
|
|
On Apr 21 2005 9:01 PM, golfer711 wrote:
| Quote: | MDD, I don't think you are a lump at all.
|
That's only 'cause you haven't seen me deal. LOL. But I'm getting there.
MDD
---
: the next generation of web-newsreaders : http://www.recgroups.com |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
|
|
You cannot post new topics in this forum
You cannot reply to topics in this forum
You cannot edit your posts in this forum
You cannot delete your posts in this forum
You cannot vote in polls in this forum
|
Powered by phpBB 2.0.11 © 2001, 2002 phpBB Group
|
FAQ
Search
Memberlist
Usergroups
Register
Profile
Log in to check your private messages
Log in
