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MODiceDealer
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 Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 1:00 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On Apr 1 2005 6:17 PM, golfer711 wrote:
| Quote: | A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
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It doesn't take a lump like me to verify that trends exist. I've been
dealing for less than a year. You've probably seen more rolls of the dice
in your life than I have. I think I also said that I didn't put any stock
into their predictive value.
I don't think the "math guys" are denying that trends exist. They are
just doubting their usefulness for betting purposes.
MDD
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Alan Shank
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| Posted: Wed Apr 20, 2005 6:02 pm Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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On Wed, 20 Apr 2005 05:37:04 -0700, "MODiceDealer"
<[email protected]> wrote:
| Quote: | On Apr 1 2005 6:17 PM, golfer711 wrote:
A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
It doesn't take a lump like me to verify that trends exist. I've been
dealing for less than a year. You've probably seen more rolls of the dice
in your life than I have. I think I also said that I didn't put any stock
into their predictive value.
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You seem to understand that a trend is not a "thing" at all. It is
only an observation of an apparent pattern in a random distribution.
As such, it has no predictive value whatsoever. "Identifying a trend
before it is over" is nothing more than observing an apparent pattern
which then continues, the probability of which is no different than
any other time. Golfer cannot grasp this concept. He is not alone.
Cheers,
Alan Shank |
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Cymbal Man Freq.
Guest
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:01 am Post subject: Re: Laying the 4 |
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The probability of driving a car succussfully between the cones in a
construction zone can be abruptly changed if sirens and flashing lights from a
squad car appear in your rear view mirror.
"Alan Shank" <[email protected]> wrote in message
news:[email protected]...
| Quote: | On Wed, 20 Apr 2005 05:37:04 -0700, "MODiceDealer"
[email protected]> wrote:
On Apr 1 2005 6:17 PM, golfer711 wrote:
A contingent here will deny the exisitence of trends while they are
still ongoing. Their training and thought process will not allow them
to think that a trend can be identified before it is over. In another
post I asked MDD the question and he said yes he has seen that (a
trend) for a shift.
It doesn't take a lump like me to verify that trends exist. I've been
dealing for less than a year. You've probably seen more rolls of the dice
in your life than I have. I think I also said that I didn't put any stock
into their predictive value.
You seem to understand that a trend is not a "thing" at all. It is
only an observation of an apparent pattern in a random distribution.
As such, it has no predictive value whatsoever. "Identifying a trend
before it is over" is nothing more than observing an apparent pattern
which then continues, the probability of which is no different than
any other time. Golfer cannot grasp this concept. He is not alone.
Cheers,
Alan Shank
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