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 Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:02 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
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[email protected] wrote:
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
For one, in order to make anything other than
piddly chump change, one *MUST* deposit at least
a minimal amount to open accounts at a
*LARGE NUMBER* of offshore books which accept
credit card transactions rapidly, and you MUST
have a good sized credit card limit which allows
you to place several bets at a time.
A worse alternative is to deposit several
*THOUSANDS* in each of SEVERAL books, tying up
funds you could be putting to much better use
elsewhere, IF you even had the money!
Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
as +105 at one book, but Team B is
listed at +105 at a different book.
In this manner, one is guaranteed to win
$5 on every denomination of $100 bets.
$5 is a pittance. To be of any real worth
one should bet $1000 to earn back $50.
And this *assumes* that you have active
accounts at THOSE particular books, which
you might not...
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
(Or there was some goof up in accepting your bet)
By THEIR rules (and you're at their mercy in
this regard!) they would refund back to you
your money, but the downside is that your
wager at the other book is still active,
and if it LOSES, you're down -$1000!
Of course it could win and you'd be up +$1050,
but the point is that it is *NOT* the case
that there are NO RISKS as wrongly claimed
by advocates of Arbitrage Trading - there ARE risks! -
or claims that you "NEVER LOSE" -- you can! --
although it's not a frequent occurance.
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
But the $1050 winnings go into your other
offshore account. In order to avoid interest
payments on your credit card (usually a 21 day
period though this may vary), you may need to
withdraw the winnings from the one offshore
account to pay off the credit card debit.
Time and transaction fees may be a consideration
in this regard.
Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
are through credit cards, remember that every game
means you WILL LOSE one side of the bet and each
$1000 bet will be debited to your card! Sure
you're winning those games too, but those funds go
into your offshore accounts. If these happened all
in one or two days, you may not have a high enough
credit limit to cover each opportunity, and thus
miss out on some of them!
Then too, if for any reason you might need that credit
card for any other reason and it's maxed out from
LOSING bets, you're in a fix until you can get those
winnings forwarded to you quickly - and that too may
involve transaction fees!
Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
IOW, the "PLUS MONEY" odds must be present at two
of the books YOU have accounts with AND AT THE SAME
TIME, and you must constantly search to find them.
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
you need to be near your computer every minute of the
day. Thus the overall profit can be reduced somewhat
for many from missing opportunities.
The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
Brian |
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Guest
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:01 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
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|
For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]>
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error. I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free". While
technically this may be true, that's like saying that walking down the
street is risk free. Usually, it is, but in reality of COURSE there is risk
in EVERYTHING in life. I didn't choose the marketing practices of the
company who's software I use in my trading, so I have no control over it.
| Quote: | For one, in order to make anything other than
|
<snip>
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me. I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and no
you don't need high credit limits.
| Quote: | Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
|
<snip>
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight doing
arbitrage trading. That is not what it's for. But if you can make 1% on
your total bank every day, say 3 or 4 days a week, that's over 15% per
month. Where else will you get that for only a few hours per week worth of
real work?
| Quote: | Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
|
<snip>
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock trades, or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets just
for the hell of it. There are basic guidelines to doing arbitrage that one
should follow, and these minimize if not eliminate those risks.
| Quote: | Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
|
<snip>
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade. I know some full time
traders who do, but since I only have one card with a low limit, even if I
wanted to it's not a viable option.
| Quote: | Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
|
<snip>
*can* nothing. I see these every single day. They are practically endless.
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet (no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
| Quote: | Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
|
<snip>
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different. Can you do it
manually for free? Absolutely. Will you get what you paid for? Probably.
| Quote: | (If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
|
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account, decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
| Quote: | When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
|
<snip>
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,. professions
MAKE money. Whichever you decide to make anything you pursue is your
business, but I generally prefer MAKING money. Many people already "work"
in such a way as to be at a computer almost all day anyway, and it's easy
enough to just have the software running in the background telling me when
there's a trade to do. I can take the trade or not, there will always be
more.
| Quote: | The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
|
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL. And I
know I'm not alone.
Is arbitrage the "holy grail"? Well actually, YES. That's why so many
banks, large hedge funds, and other big traders do it ALL THE TIME. Is
SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream? You bet! (pun intended)
Jonathan
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info |
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Guest
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:02 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
[email protected] wrote:
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
Take a look, this is great stuff.
J
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error.
|
Not so.
I've outlines the risks in detail and
few of them have anything to do with
human error...
| Quote: | I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free". While
technically this may be true,
|
It isn't even true "technically"
as I have pointed out quite well.
| Quote: |
For one, in order to make anything other than
snip
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me.
|
Which is another problem as not all books
use Neteller and therefore one may be
unable to cash in on several opportunities
as they present themselves at THOSE books.
| Quote: | I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
|
Others have to do things differently,
but the point is LARGE sums of money
are required to make anything other
than piddly chump change, and THAT
will be a problem for MANY...
| Quote: | So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and no
you don't need high credit limits.
|
Need, for some, perhaps not.
But for many others, YES, hence the problem.
| Quote: | Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
snip
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight doing
arbitrage trading.
|
One won't make much either.
| Quote: |
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
snip
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock trades, or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets just
for the hell of it.
|
This isn't accurate.
The point is THEY can and will cancel
a bet claiming a wrong line from time to time,
OR, there are problems with getting the bet
down at one but not at the other...it happens.
| Quote: |
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
snip
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade.
|
Well, again, that's for *YOU* only.
For others it applies, and THAT is the point.
Not everyone has the luxury of doing it all
*EXACTLY* the way *YOU* claim.
| Quote: | Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
snip
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet (no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
|
Again, credit limits are NOT an issue for
those who claim as you do, but they are and
WILL BE AN ISSUE for many others who can't
do it EXACTLY the same way...in any case,
opportunities are lost...
| Quote: | Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
snip
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different.
|
And as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
| Quote: |
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account, decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
|
And once again, as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
| Quote: | When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
snip
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,.
|
Which is fine *IF* the hobby paid SUBSTANTIAL SUMS
But this does not.
It's far tooo much work/effort for the minimal return
and that minimal return is SLICED EVEN MORE if
paying a service in this regard, let alone the
practicalities involved which will present a problem
for many (not all, but many)
| Quote: | The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL. And I
know I'm not alone.
|
So you claim.
Nevertheless my points stand as RELEVANT
as it would apply to others (not all, but many)
| Quote: | Is SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream?
|
Though unlikely to be worth the time and effort
let alone the practicalities as I have pointed out
which *WOULD* apply to many.
Frankly, I'm convinced it's NOT worth the time
and effort as I spent considerable time with it
at one point a few years ago and I do this FULL-TIME!
The meagre profits did NOT pay for the time and effort
despite my best efforts....it's like like spending
8 hours a day digging holes for a net of $130, but
for an added hobby (sports arbitrage) spending an
additional 4 hours a night digging more holes but
being paid only $13...not worth it...
Is the added 13 meagre dollars a profit? Yep.
Is it worth the time and effort? Nope. |
|
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Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 3:02 pm Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak from
my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's fine. We're
not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at this. Some will trade
and make money, some will trade and not make money, and some will not trade
at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
--
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:3IG9e.1089561$6l.687635@pd7tw2no...
| Quote: | [email protected] wrote:
For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
[email protected] wrote:
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
Take a look, this is great stuff.
J
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error.
Not so.
I've outlines the risks in detail and
few of them have anything to do with
human error...
I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free".
While
technically this may be true,
It isn't even true "technically"
as I have pointed out quite well.
For one, in order to make anything other than
snip
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that
accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me.
Which is another problem as not all books
use Neteller and therefore one may be
unable to cash in on several opportunities
as they present themselves at THOSE books.
I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in
all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents
itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
Others have to do things differently,
but the point is LARGE sums of money
are required to make anything other
than piddly chump change, and THAT
will be a problem for MANY...
So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and no
you don't need high credit limits.
Need, for some, perhaps not.
But for many others, YES, hence the problem.
Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
snip
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight
doing
arbitrage trading.
One won't make much either.
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
snip
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just
like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock trades,
or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally
speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an
obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets
just
for the hell of it.
This isn't accurate.
The point is THEY can and will cancel
a bet claiming a wrong line from time to time,
OR, there are problems with getting the bet
down at one but not at the other...it happens.
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
snip
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade.
Well, again, that's for *YOU* only.
For others it applies, and THAT is the point.
Not everyone has the luxury of doing it all
*EXACTLY* the way *YOU* claim.
Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
snip
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet
(no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
Again, credit limits are NOT an issue for
those who claim as you do, but they are and
WILL BE AN ISSUE for many others who can't
do it EXACTLY the same way...in any case,
opportunities are lost...
Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
snip
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but
it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate
much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different.
And as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account,
decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course
not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a
hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in
the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several
thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the
tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
And once again, as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
snip
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in
order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying
attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,.
Which is fine *IF* the hobby paid SUBSTANTIAL SUMS
But this does not.
It's far tooo much work/effort for the minimal return
and that minimal return is SLICED EVEN MORE if
paying a service in this regard, let alone the
practicalities involved which will present a problem
for many (not all, but many)
The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL.
And I
know I'm not alone.
So you claim.
Nevertheless my points stand as RELEVANT
as it would apply to others (not all, but many)
Is SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional
relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream?
Though unlikely to be worth the time and effort
let alone the practicalities as I have pointed out
which *WOULD* apply to many.
Frankly, I'm convinced it's NOT worth the time
and effort as I spent considerable time with it
at one point a few years ago and I do this FULL-TIME!
The meagre profits did NOT pay for the time and effort
despite my best efforts....it's like like spending
8 hours a day digging holes for a net of $130, but
for an added hobby (sports arbitrage) spending an
additional 4 hours a night digging more holes but
being paid only $13...not worth it...
Is the added 13 meagre dollars a profit? Yep.
Is it worth the time and effort? Nope. |
|
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|
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Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:02 pm Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak from
my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's fine. We're
not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at this. Some will trade
and make money, some will trade and not make money, and some will not trade
at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
|
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
| Quote: | [email protected]> wrote in message
news:3IG9e.1089561$6l.687635@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
[email protected] wrote:
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
Take a look, this is great stuff.
J
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error.
Not so.
I've outlines the risks in detail and
few of them have anything to do with
human error...
I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free".
While
technically this may be true,
It isn't even true "technically"
as I have pointed out quite well.
For one, in order to make anything other than
snip
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that
accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me.
Which is another problem as not all books
use Neteller and therefore one may be
unable to cash in on several opportunities
as they present themselves at THOSE books.
I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in
all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents
itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
Others have to do things differently,
but the point is LARGE sums of money
are required to make anything other
than piddly chump change, and THAT
will be a problem for MANY...
So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and no
you don't need high credit limits.
Need, for some, perhaps not.
But for many others, YES, hence the problem.
Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
snip
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight
doing
arbitrage trading.
One won't make much either.
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
snip
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just
like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock trades,
or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally
speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an
obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets
just
for the hell of it.
This isn't accurate.
The point is THEY can and will cancel
a bet claiming a wrong line from time to time,
OR, there are problems with getting the bet
down at one but not at the other...it happens.
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
snip
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade.
Well, again, that's for *YOU* only.
For others it applies, and THAT is the point.
Not everyone has the luxury of doing it all
*EXACTLY* the way *YOU* claim.
Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
snip
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet
(no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
Again, credit limits are NOT an issue for
those who claim as you do, but they are and
WILL BE AN ISSUE for many others who can't
do it EXACTLY the same way...in any case,
opportunities are lost...
Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
snip
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but
it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate
much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different.
And as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account,
decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course
not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a
hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in
the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several
thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the
tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
And once again, as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
snip
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in
order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying
attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,.
Which is fine *IF* the hobby paid SUBSTANTIAL SUMS
But this does not.
It's far tooo much work/effort for the minimal return
and that minimal return is SLICED EVEN MORE if
paying a service in this regard, let alone the
practicalities involved which will present a problem
for many (not all, but many)
The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL.
And I
know I'm not alone.
So you claim.
Nevertheless my points stand as RELEVANT
as it would apply to others (not all, but many)
Is SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional
relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream?
Though unlikely to be worth the time and effort
let alone the practicalities as I have pointed out
which *WOULD* apply to many.
Frankly, I'm convinced it's NOT worth the time
and effort as I spent considerable time with it
at one point a few years ago and I do this FULL-TIME!
The meagre profits did NOT pay for the time and effort
despite my best efforts....it's like like spending
8 hours a day digging holes for a net of $130, but
for an added hobby (sports arbitrage) spending an
additional 4 hours a night digging more holes but
being paid only $13...not worth it...
Is the added 13 meagre dollars a profit? Yep.
Is it worth the time and effort? Nope.
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 10:03 pm Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like complaining that
the price of a stock or currency moved and therefore you weren't able to get
it where you wanted it. It's part of the nature of any market!
This is also why it is smart to incorporate betting exchanges, not just
bookmakers, into one's toolkit. In fact with proper use of betting
exchanges, you can actually CREATE arbs that were never there to begin with.
I have not yet done this myself, but I know people who have and do.
You seem unable to let this go... or to accept that there ARE people who
make a nice tidy consistent additional (or even primary) income stream off
of sports arbitrage trading. Just because YOU were not able to make a
success of it does not mean that others have not, or can not.
Some people will try it, find it's not for them, and move on. And some will
try it, find they like it for whatever reason, and continue to trade. Still
others will trade, but do so professionally and in a very orderly fashion,
managing it like any trading business, and will do quite well.
Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
J
--
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:gkP9e.1094501$6l.423039@pd7tw2no...
| Quote: | [email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at this.
Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make money, and
some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:3IG9e.1089561$6l.687635@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
[email protected] wrote:
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
Take a look, this is great stuff.
J
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error.
Not so.
I've outlines the risks in detail and
few of them have anything to do with
human error...
I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free".
While
technically this may be true,
It isn't even true "technically"
as I have pointed out quite well.
For one, in order to make anything other than
snip
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that
accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me.
Which is another problem as not all books
use Neteller and therefore one may be
unable to cash in on several opportunities
as they present themselves at THOSE books.
I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in
all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents
itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
Others have to do things differently,
but the point is LARGE sums of money
are required to make anything other
than piddly chump change, and THAT
will be a problem for MANY...
So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and
no
you don't need high credit limits.
Need, for some, perhaps not.
But for many others, YES, hence the problem.
Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
snip
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight
doing
arbitrage trading.
One won't make much either.
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
snip
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just
like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock
trades, or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally
speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an
obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets
just
for the hell of it.
This isn't accurate.
The point is THEY can and will cancel
a bet claiming a wrong line from time to time,
OR, there are problems with getting the bet
down at one but not at the other...it happens.
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
snip
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade.
Well, again, that's for *YOU* only.
For others it applies, and THAT is the point.
Not everyone has the luxury of doing it all
*EXACTLY* the way *YOU* claim.
Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
snip
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet
(no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
Again, credit limits are NOT an issue for
those who claim as you do, but they are and
WILL BE AN ISSUE for many others who can't
do it EXACTLY the same way...in any case,
opportunities are lost...
Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
snip
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but
it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate
much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different.
And as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account,
decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course
not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a
hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in
the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several
thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the
tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
And once again, as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
snip
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in
order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying
attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is
either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,.
Which is fine *IF* the hobby paid SUBSTANTIAL SUMS
But this does not.
It's far tooo much work/effort for the minimal return
and that minimal return is SLICED EVEN MORE if
paying a service in this regard, let alone the
practicalities involved which will present a problem
for many (not all, but many)
The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL.
And I
know I'm not alone.
So you claim.
Nevertheless my points stand as RELEVANT
as it would apply to others (not all, but many)
Is SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional
relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream?
Though unlikely to be worth the time and effort
let alone the practicalities as I have pointed out
which *WOULD* apply to many.
Frankly, I'm convinced it's NOT worth the time
and effort as I spent considerable time with it
at one point a few years ago and I do this FULL-TIME!
The meagre profits did NOT pay for the time and effort
despite my best efforts....it's like like spending
8 hours a day digging holes for a net of $130, but
for an added hobby (sports arbitrage) spending an
additional 4 hours a night digging more holes but
being paid only $13...not worth it...
Is the added 13 meagre dollars a profit? Yep.
Is it worth the time and effort? Nope.
|
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 11:04 pm Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | [email protected]> wrote
[email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at this.
Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make money, and
some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
|
| Quote: | Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like
complaining that the price of a stock or currency moved and
therefore you weren't able to get it where you wanted it.
It's part of the nature of any market!
|
You've missed the point.
We all KNOW lines move and opportunities are lost.
The point is, standard/common lines (or extremely close)
will linger at numerous books for one to several hours.
....But lines which present an arbitrage opportunity
are QUICKLY LOST due to the inequality/BARGAIN in the
lines spotted by other bettors, and with even a few
ARBITRAGE BETTORS HAVING TO PLUNK DOWN SEVERAL THOUSANDS
AT THAT *lone* offshore, THOSE lines will **surely**
**disappear** for the overrwhelming MAJORITY of those
wanting to buy into the arbitrage system!!!
**BECAUSE** of those constant LOST opportunities -
which will only increase in frustration as more and
more "arbitrage traders" get involved - that means that
the meagre profits FOR THOSE OTHERS WHO TRY TO BET
*after* YOU and a couple others get down on the action
will shrink proportionately and significantly!!!!
Yes, *YOU* and a few others who get in on that line EARLY
will be able to take advantage and make a small profit.
I've already acknowledged this!
THe FIRST ONES IN ON A GIVEN LINE *will* profit a small
amount over time!
BUT...for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, this will NOT be
the case, *because* the lines *will* move as a result of
this action!!!!
Get it now?
In some ways it's like what occurs in a pyramid scheme
where people are sold the PROMISE of profits...and it
certainly DOES PROFIT those who get in on it *EARLY*
But those who enter the action down the line find it
increasingly difficult and ultimately it's a lost cause.
For this reason such schemes are outlawed.
YOURS is *NOT* a pyramid scheme but I'm pointing out
the similarities with the "promise/expectation" and
how only the EARLY ones make the profit and the rest
end up suffering...THAT is the point, let alone the
practicality issues which I've already identified.
Furthermore, if *YOU* stand to profit in any way
from others getting involved in this, then we understand
your motive to sell this to others - much like a pyramid
schemer. YOU see only how the method profits YOU, but
fail to understand how it will fall apart when more
come on board...
| Quote: | You seem unable to let this go...
|
Actually it's YOU who seems "unable to let this go"
since YOU stated in your LAST POST:
"so I think I'll just leave it at this."
I accepted your word that you were leaving it at that.
But instead it is YOU who can't seem to let this go...
| Quote: | or to accept that there
ARE people who make a nice tidy consistent additional
(or even primary) income stream off of sports arbitrage
trading.
|
Do you have trouble with reading comprehension?
I made it *CLEAR* before that YOU (and others
who get bets down on those fleeting opportunities
***early***) can and do make a profit over time!
If that is not clear to you, I'll repeat it:
sports arbitrage traders who get down on
those fleeting lines *early* (before the lines
subsequently move as a result of that action)
can and will make some profit over time!
But those infrequent PLUS MONEY lines which present
the arbitrage opportunity, not only DON'T last for long
in the first place, but even if EVERY arbitrage player
saw them at the precise same moment and then quickly
tried to get down on them (betting THOUSANDS *each*)
THOSE ODDS WILL NOT HOLD STEADY while each and every
trader plunks his $1,000-$5,000 down AT THAT BOOK!
It may last for the scant few minutes it takes for
maybe 2-3 LARGE bets to come in (the lucky FIRST few)
and then the line moves and that opportunity is gone!!!!
And this pattern can and will repeat itself time and
time and time again, thus the gross profit SHRINKS
*because* the gross number of opportunities SHRINK!!!!
So, for bettors OTHER THAN THE LUCKY FIRST FEW IN,
shrinking a small profit base even further makes it
untenable FOR *THEM*...the overwhelming MAJORITY!
Understand now?
| Quote: | Just because YOU were not able to make a success
of it does not mean that others have not, or can not.
|
(see above)
And as I explained, I made profit,
it's just that the time/effort required
to make that meagre profit WAS NOT WORTH IT.
| Quote: | Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
|
Pointing out the flaws in your method is
"railing against" something?!?! |
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 12:03 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
OK, at this point there's not much new for me to say other than my own
personal experience thus far shows that your arguments are incorrect. I see
arbitrage opportunities regularly that are available for 10 to 30 minutes,
AMPLE time to get them for darn near anyone. And as I pointed out, with the
addition of betting exchanges to one's toolkit, there is even more
opportunity.
I was prepared to leave it at "we have differences of opinion and
experience" and call it quits, but it was you who had to respond with a
repeat of your previous arguments, the vast majority of which my experience
shows to not be the case. Perhaps I'm "lucky", or "in early" or whatever.
Maybe I should check in 6 months to a year from now and let you know how
I've done over a longer time horizon. Assuming of course that you'd care,
which I'm not.
Folks can and should make up their own minds, as I and many others have
done. Some will have your experiences, and some mine.
J
--
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:2KV9e.1097587$6l.157751@pd7tw2no...
| Quote: | [email protected] wrote:
[email protected]> wrote
[email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at this.
Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make money, and
some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like complaining
that the price of a stock or currency moved and therefore you weren't
able to get it where you wanted it. It's part of the nature of any
market!
You've missed the point.
We all KNOW lines move and opportunities are lost.
The point is, standard/common lines (or extremely close)
will linger at numerous books for one to several hours.
...But lines which present an arbitrage opportunity
are QUICKLY LOST due to the inequality/BARGAIN in the
lines spotted by other bettors, and with even a few
ARBITRAGE BETTORS HAVING TO PLUNK DOWN SEVERAL THOUSANDS
AT THAT *lone* offshore, THOSE lines will **surely**
**disappear** for the overrwhelming MAJORITY of those
wanting to buy into the arbitrage system!!!
**BECAUSE** of those constant LOST opportunities -
which will only increase in frustration as more and
more "arbitrage traders" get involved - that means that
the meagre profits FOR THOSE OTHERS WHO TRY TO BET
*after* YOU and a couple others get down on the action
will shrink proportionately and significantly!!!!
Yes, *YOU* and a few others who get in on that line EARLY
will be able to take advantage and make a small profit.
I've already acknowledged this!
THe FIRST ONES IN ON A GIVEN LINE *will* profit a small
amount over time!
BUT...for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, this will NOT be
the case, *because* the lines *will* move as a result of
this action!!!!
Get it now?
In some ways it's like what occurs in a pyramid scheme
where people are sold the PROMISE of profits...and it
certainly DOES PROFIT those who get in on it *EARLY*
But those who enter the action down the line find it
increasingly difficult and ultimately it's a lost cause.
For this reason such schemes are outlawed.
YOURS is *NOT* a pyramid scheme but I'm pointing out
the similarities with the "promise/expectation" and
how only the EARLY ones make the profit and the rest
end up suffering...THAT is the point, let alone the
practicality issues which I've already identified.
Furthermore, if *YOU* stand to profit in any way
from others getting involved in this, then we understand
your motive to sell this to others - much like a pyramid
schemer. YOU see only how the method profits YOU, but
fail to understand how it will fall apart when more
come on board...
You seem unable to let this go...
Actually it's YOU who seems "unable to let this go"
since YOU stated in your LAST POST:
"so I think I'll just leave it at this."
I accepted your word that you were leaving it at that.
But instead it is YOU who can't seem to let this go...
or to accept that there ARE people who make a nice tidy consistent
additional (or even primary) income stream off of sports arbitrage
trading.
Do you have trouble with reading comprehension?
I made it *CLEAR* before that YOU (and others
who get bets down on those fleeting opportunities
***early***) can and do make a profit over time!
If that is not clear to you, I'll repeat it:
sports arbitrage traders who get down on
those fleeting lines *early* (before the lines
subsequently move as a result of that action)
can and will make some profit over time!
But those infrequent PLUS MONEY lines which present
the arbitrage opportunity, not only DON'T last for long
in the first place, but even if EVERY arbitrage player
saw them at the precise same moment and then quickly
tried to get down on them (betting THOUSANDS *each*)
THOSE ODDS WILL NOT HOLD STEADY while each and every
trader plunks his $1,000-$5,000 down AT THAT BOOK!
It may last for the scant few minutes it takes for
maybe 2-3 LARGE bets to come in (the lucky FIRST few)
and then the line moves and that opportunity is gone!!!!
And this pattern can and will repeat itself time and
time and time again, thus the gross profit SHRINKS
*because* the gross number of opportunities SHRINK!!!!
So, for bettors OTHER THAN THE LUCKY FIRST FEW IN,
shrinking a small profit base even further makes it
untenable FOR *THEM*...the overwhelming MAJORITY!
Understand now?
Just because YOU were not able to make a success of it does not mean that
others have not, or can not.
(see above)
And as I explained, I made profit,
it's just that the time/effort required
to make that meagre profit WAS NOT WORTH IT.
Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
Pointing out the flaws in your method is
"railing against" something?!?! |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 1:03 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | OK, at this point there's not much new for me to say other than my own
personal experience thus far shows that your arguments are incorrect.
|
FALSE!
You KEEP____MISSING_____THE POINT!!!!
*YOUR* personal experience, YES IT **DOES** WORK!!!
Got it?
IT *DOES* WORK for *YOU*, okay?
ANd it *will* work (in a modest way) for the few
who are lucky enough to get their LAARGE bets down
BEFORE THE LINES SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE AS A RESULT OF
THAT BETTING ACTION!
But it can't/won't work for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
of others trying to do the same thing
*because* of the LINE MOVEMENTS taking away the opp
AFTER ***YOU*** AND A COUPLE OTHERS GET THE *LARGE*
BETS DOWN AT THAT OFFSHORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't know how to dumb-it-down for you any further!
| Quote: | I see
arbitrage opportunities regularly that are available for 10 to 30 minutes,
AMPLE time to get them for darn near anyone.
|
The *time* is ***NOT*** the concern,
but rather that the book *will* move
the line (erasing the arbitrage opp)
AFTER a few LARGE BETS COME IN FROM *YOU*
AND COUPLE/FEW OTHERS (several THOUSAND dollars)!!!
THAT'S THE freakin POINT!
SO as more people enter to do this,
those opps NECESSARILY *will* shrink!!!!!!!!!
What part of this OBVIOUS scenario is it that
you just can't seem to understand????????
| Quote: |
I was prepared to leave it at "we have differences of opinion and
experience" and call it quits, but it was you who had to respond with a
repeat of your previous arguments, the vast majority of which my experience
shows to not be the case.
|
FALSE, as I responded with a totally different
point which I had not mentioned before!!!!!!!!
The point about subsequent line movements on
those FEW arbitrage opps WHICH WILL ERASE THE
OPP FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF BETTORS!
| Quote: | Perhaps I'm "lucky", or "in early" or whatever.
|
Evidently.
And good for you!
But *everyone* can NOT get down on the SAME
+ line as you (with THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of
dollars coming in on that SAME SIDE, at that
SAME OFFSHORE) It will NOT HAPPEN!!!!
Books have to balance their action!
Hypothetical example:
YOU and 3 friends each see an opp that exists
at BOOK A listing +105 odds for the visiting
team and BOOK B listing +105 odds for the homies.
YOU and your 3 buddies EACH attempt to bet $2,000
on both sides -- thus ensuring a payoff of $100.
But NATURALLY this opp isn't going to last!
THey rarely last long in the first place, as we all know.
But more to the point, in addition to them not lasting
long anyway, when MORE arbitrage players want to get
down on that SAME +105 at each BOOK, they *won't* be
able to *because* each book will drop there odds to
+100 after those LARGE BETS come in on the same side
by the first few guys (you and your buddies)
So, opportunity #1 is GONZO for the overwhelming majority
of those YOU convince to pay YOU money to get involved
with this system.
But alas, that particular day there are TWO more opportunities!
SO YOU and your buddies POUNCE ON THEM TOO, as you should!
And good for you!
It will work for you as longa s you keep getting
those SUBSTANTIVE BETS DOWN **before** it causes
the books to move their lines!
However, just like opportunity #1, opportunity #2 and #3
are also GONZO for virtually everyone else *because*
those two particular books simply WILL NOT sit there
and watch THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of dollars pour in
one ONE SIDE without adjusting their lines!
So, if 50 arbitrage players were trying to be actively
involved in the scheme, and 3 or 4 get down LARGE BETS
at those two particular offshores early -- the lines
will move out of "arbitrage range" and thus, about 46-47
wannabe arbitrage bettors are out of luck - over and
over and over and over again!
Sure, the first few LARGE BETS getting in (before their
action causes the lines to move) might not be from the
SAME few guys *ALL* the time - but nevertheless
MOST of the time, MOST bettors will miss out on these
few opportunities...THAT'S THE POINT!!!
So for the overwhelming MAJORITY it will not be near
as profitable as it might appeaar on paper, and certainly
nowhere near as profitable as for those lucky enough to
get LARGE BETS DOWN early *before* the lines move!
| Quote: | Maybe I should check in 6 months to a year from now and let you know how
I've done over a longer time horizon.
|
See folks??? This guy just KEEPS___ MISSING____THE POINT!
Un-believable!
I keep telling him I *believe* it **DOES** work FOR *HIM*
and the other few who are lucky enough to get LARGE BETS
down *before* the books move their lines AS A RESULT OF
THOSE LARGE BETS -- but he can't seem to understand that
**because** the books will move their lines, "others"
will NOT make the same or near the same profit he does!
Let alone the fact that THEY have added costs included
cutting into their meagre profits which HE doesn't have!
| Quote: | Folks can and should make up their own minds, as I and many others have
done.
|
Yep, and I'm here to present info to help THEM
make up their own minds as to what the "alleged"
profitabilty might be **FOR THEM** -- since
it will NOT be the SAME profitability as it is
FOR YOU!!! It *can't* be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
| Quote: | Some will have your experiences, and some mine.
|
*MOST* will have MY experience, in that they *will*
make a tiny profit, YES...but that tiny amount
will NOT be worth their time/effort.
| Quote: |
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:2KV9e.1097587$6l.157751@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
[email protected]> wrote
[email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at this.
Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make money, and
some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like complaining
that the price of a stock or currency moved and therefore you weren't
able to get it where you wanted it. It's part of the nature of any
market!
You've missed the point.
We all KNOW lines move and opportunities are lost.
The point is, standard/common lines (or extremely close)
will linger at numerous books for one to several hours.
...But lines which present an arbitrage opportunity
are QUICKLY LOST due to the inequality/BARGAIN in the
lines spotted by other bettors, and with even a few
ARBITRAGE BETTORS HAVING TO PLUNK DOWN SEVERAL THOUSANDS
AT THAT *lone* offshore, THOSE lines will **surely**
**disappear** for the overrwhelming MAJORITY of those
wanting to buy into the arbitrage system!!!
**BECAUSE** of those constant LOST opportunities -
which will only increase in frustration as more and
more "arbitrage traders" get involved - that means that
the meagre profits FOR THOSE OTHERS WHO TRY TO BET
*after* YOU and a couple others get down on the action
will shrink proportionately and significantly!!!!
Yes, *YOU* and a few others who get in on that line EARLY
will be able to take advantage and make a small profit.
I've already acknowledged this!
THe FIRST ONES IN ON A GIVEN LINE *will* profit a small
amount over time!
BUT...for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, this will NOT be
the case, *because* the lines *will* move as a result of
this action!!!!
Get it now?
In some ways it's like what occurs in a pyramid scheme
where people are sold the PROMISE of profits...and it
certainly DOES PROFIT those who get in on it *EARLY*
But those who enter the action down the line find it
increasingly difficult and ultimately it's a lost cause.
For this reason such schemes are outlawed.
YOURS is *NOT* a pyramid scheme but I'm pointing out
the similarities with the "promise/expectation" and
how only the EARLY ones make the profit and the rest
end up suffering...THAT is the point, let alone the
practicality issues which I've already identified.
Furthermore, if *YOU* stand to profit in any way
from others getting involved in this, then we understand
your motive to sell this to others - much like a pyramid
schemer. YOU see only how the method profits YOU, but
fail to understand how it will fall apart when more
come on board...
You seem unable to let this go...
Actually it's YOU who seems "unable to let this go"
since YOU stated in your LAST POST:
"so I think I'll just leave it at this."
I accepted your word that you were leaving it at that.
But instead it is YOU who can't seem to let this go...
or to accept that there ARE people who make a nice tidy consistent
additional (or even primary) income stream off of sports arbitrage
trading.
Do you have trouble with reading comprehension?
I made it *CLEAR* before that YOU (and others
who get bets down on those fleeting opportunities
***early***) can and do make a profit over time!
If that is not clear to you, I'll repeat it:
sports arbitrage traders who get down on
those fleeting lines *early* (before the lines
subsequently move as a result of that action)
can and will make some profit over time!
But those infrequent PLUS MONEY lines which present
the arbitrage opportunity, not only DON'T last for long
in the first place, but even if EVERY arbitrage player
saw them at the precise same moment and then quickly
tried to get down on them (betting THOUSANDS *each*)
THOSE ODDS WILL NOT HOLD STEADY while each and every
trader plunks his $1,000-$5,000 down AT THAT BOOK!
It may last for the scant few minutes it takes for
maybe 2-3 LARGE bets to come in (the lucky FIRST few)
and then the line moves and that opportunity is gone!!!!
And this pattern can and will repeat itself time and
time and time again, thus the gross profit SHRINKS
*because* the gross number of opportunities SHRINK!!!!
So, for bettors OTHER THAN THE LUCKY FIRST FEW IN,
shrinking a small profit base even further makes it
untenable FOR *THEM*...the overwhelming MAJORITY!
Understand now?
Just because YOU were not able to make a success of it does not mean that
others have not, or can not.
(see above)
And as I explained, I made profit,
it's just that the time/effort required
to make that meagre profit WAS NOT WORTH IT.
Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
Pointing out the flaws in your method is
"railing against" something?!?! |
|
|
| Back to top |
|
|
Guest
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 2:04 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
Gee that's funny, I never said I was making large or substantive bets. In
fact, I specifically said:
"Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative."
So I'm sorry, but it is certainly not MY action that is moving the lines.
Not a chance in hell. And they are there long enough for me to take them,
again and again and again.
Since you're clearly writing this for your perceived audience, I will now
address them:
Only you can determine what amount/type of effort is worthwhile to you for a
given return. To some people, an extra $50 per day would be HUGE, and to
others, if they can't squeeze at least an additional $500 per day they
wouldn't bother with any venture of any kind. Some people are naturally
entrepreneurial by nature, and some aren't. Some take calculated risks,
some don't. Personally, I'd rather make less money than I would collecting
a juicy paycheck, but have an absolutely stellar quality of life every day.
But that's just me. You all are capable of making your own decisions, so if
for some reason arbitrage trading appeals to you, then check it out. If
not, then don't. It's really that simple. Yes, I'm an affiliate for the
tools I use so yes, I will get a little something (and honestly I *do* mean
little) for having shared this product & service with you. But if you would
rather not join under me, that's ok too. Do a google search for "sports
arbitrage software" and you will find PLENTY of other people you can join
under, as well as plenty of other (in my opinion inferior) services for
delivering the trade information to you. But make your own decisions, take
personal responsibility for them, and take action in whatever way feels
appropriate.
Now, back to our discussion... do you just have to have the last word or
what? You've already said what you keep saying over & over, so why continue
this? I'm doing so out of sheer bemusement...
J
--
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
<[email protected]> wrote in message
news:lgX9e.1097844$6l.379951@pd7tw2no...
| Quote: | [email protected] wrote:
OK, at this point there's not much new for me to say other than my own
personal experience thus far shows that your arguments are incorrect.
FALSE!
You KEEP____MISSING_____THE POINT!!!!
*YOUR* personal experience, YES IT **DOES** WORK!!!
Got it?
IT *DOES* WORK for *YOU*, okay?
ANd it *will* work (in a modest way) for the few
who are lucky enough to get their LAARGE bets down
BEFORE THE LINES SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE AS A RESULT OF
THAT BETTING ACTION!
But it can't/won't work for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
of others trying to do the same thing
*because* of the LINE MOVEMENTS taking away the opp
AFTER ***YOU*** AND A COUPLE OTHERS GET THE *LARGE*
BETS DOWN AT THAT OFFSHORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't know how to dumb-it-down for you any further!
I see arbitrage opportunities regularly that are available for 10 to 30
minutes, AMPLE time to get them for darn near anyone.
The *time* is ***NOT*** the concern,
but rather that the book *will* move
the line (erasing the arbitrage opp)
AFTER a few LARGE BETS COME IN FROM *YOU*
AND COUPLE/FEW OTHERS (several THOUSAND dollars)!!!
THAT'S THE freakin POINT!
SO as more people enter to do this,
those opps NECESSARILY *will* shrink!!!!!!!!!
What part of this OBVIOUS scenario is it that
you just can't seem to understand????????
I was prepared to leave it at "we have differences of opinion and
experience" and call it quits, but it was you who had to respond with a
repeat of your previous arguments, the vast majority of which my
experience shows to not be the case.
FALSE, as I responded with a totally different
point which I had not mentioned before!!!!!!!!
The point about subsequent line movements on
those FEW arbitrage opps WHICH WILL ERASE THE
OPP FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF BETTORS!
Perhaps I'm "lucky", or "in early" or whatever.
Evidently.
And good for you!
But *everyone* can NOT get down on the SAME
+ line as you (with THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of
dollars coming in on that SAME SIDE, at that
SAME OFFSHORE) It will NOT HAPPEN!!!!
Books have to balance their action!
Hypothetical example:
YOU and 3 friends each see an opp that exists
at BOOK A listing +105 odds for the visiting
team and BOOK B listing +105 odds for the homies.
YOU and your 3 buddies EACH attempt to bet $2,000
on both sides -- thus ensuring a payoff of $100.
But NATURALLY this opp isn't going to last!
THey rarely last long in the first place, as we all know.
But more to the point, in addition to them not lasting
long anyway, when MORE arbitrage players want to get
down on that SAME +105 at each BOOK, they *won't* be
able to *because* each book will drop there odds to
+100 after those LARGE BETS come in on the same side
by the first few guys (you and your buddies)
So, opportunity #1 is GONZO for the overwhelming majority
of those YOU convince to pay YOU money to get involved
with this system.
But alas, that particular day there are TWO more opportunities!
SO YOU and your buddies POUNCE ON THEM TOO, as you should!
And good for you!
It will work for you as longa s you keep getting
those SUBSTANTIVE BETS DOWN **before** it causes
the books to move their lines!
However, just like opportunity #1, opportunity #2 and #3
are also GONZO for virtually everyone else *because*
those two particular books simply WILL NOT sit there
and watch THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of dollars pour in
one ONE SIDE without adjusting their lines!
So, if 50 arbitrage players were trying to be actively
involved in the scheme, and 3 or 4 get down LARGE BETS
at those two particular offshores early -- the lines
will move out of "arbitrage range" and thus, about 46-47
wannabe arbitrage bettors are out of luck - over and
over and over and over again!
Sure, the first few LARGE BETS getting in (before their
action causes the lines to move) might not be from the
SAME few guys *ALL* the time - but nevertheless
MOST of the time, MOST bettors will miss out on these
few opportunities...THAT'S THE POINT!!!
So for the overwhelming MAJORITY it will not be near
as profitable as it might appeaar on paper, and certainly
nowhere near as profitable as for those lucky enough to
get LARGE BETS DOWN early *before* the lines move!
Maybe I should check in 6 months to a year from now and let you know how
I've done over a longer time horizon.
See folks??? This guy just KEEPS___ MISSING____THE POINT!
Un-believable!
I keep telling him I *believe* it **DOES** work FOR *HIM*
and the other few who are lucky enough to get LARGE BETS
down *before* the books move their lines AS A RESULT OF
THOSE LARGE BETS -- but he can't seem to understand that
**because** the books will move their lines, "others"
will NOT make the same or near the same profit he does!
Let alone the fact that THEY have added costs included
cutting into their meagre profits which HE doesn't have!
Folks can and should make up their own minds, as I and many others have
done.
Yep, and I'm here to present info to help THEM
make up their own minds as to what the "alleged"
profitabilty might be **FOR THEM** -- since
it will NOT be the SAME profitability as it is
FOR YOU!!! It *can't* be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some will have your experiences, and some mine.
*MOST* will have MY experience, in that they *will*
make a tiny profit, YES...but that tiny amount
will NOT be worth their time/effort.
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:2KV9e.1097587$6l.157751@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
[email protected]> wrote
[email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at
this. Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make
money, and some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like complaining
that the price of a stock or currency moved and therefore you weren't
able to get it where you wanted it. It's part of the nature of any
market!
You've missed the point.
We all KNOW lines move and opportunities are lost.
The point is, standard/common lines (or extremely close)
will linger at numerous books for one to several hours.
...But lines which present an arbitrage opportunity
are QUICKLY LOST due to the inequality/BARGAIN in the
lines spotted by other bettors, and with even a few
ARBITRAGE BETTORS HAVING TO PLUNK DOWN SEVERAL THOUSANDS
AT THAT *lone* offshore, THOSE lines will **surely**
**disappear** for the overrwhelming MAJORITY of those
wanting to buy into the arbitrage system!!!
**BECAUSE** of those constant LOST opportunities -
which will only increase in frustration as more and
more "arbitrage traders" get involved - that means that
the meagre profits FOR THOSE OTHERS WHO TRY TO BET
*after* YOU and a couple others get down on the action
will shrink proportionately and significantly!!!!
Yes, *YOU* and a few others who get in on that line EARLY
will be able to take advantage and make a small profit.
I've already acknowledged this!
THe FIRST ONES IN ON A GIVEN LINE *will* profit a small
amount over time!
BUT...for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, this will NOT be
the case, *because* the lines *will* move as a result of
this action!!!!
Get it now?
In some ways it's like what occurs in a pyramid scheme
where people are sold the PROMISE of profits...and it
certainly DOES PROFIT those who get in on it *EARLY*
But those who enter the action down the line find it
increasingly difficult and ultimately it's a lost cause.
For this reason such schemes are outlawed.
YOURS is *NOT* a pyramid scheme but I'm pointing out
the similarities with the "promise/expectation" and
how only the EARLY ones make the profit and the rest
end up suffering...THAT is the point, let alone the
practicality issues which I've already identified.
Furthermore, if *YOU* stand to profit in any way
from others getting involved in this, then we understand
your motive to sell this to others - much like a pyramid
schemer. YOU see only how the method profits YOU, but
fail to understand how it will fall apart when more
come on board...
You seem unable to let this go...
Actually it's YOU who seems "unable to let this go"
since YOU stated in your LAST POST:
"so I think I'll just leave it at this."
I accepted your word that you were leaving it at that.
But instead it is YOU who can't seem to let this go...
or to accept that there ARE people who make a nice tidy consistent
additional (or even primary) income stream off of sports arbitrage
trading.
Do you have trouble with reading comprehension?
I made it *CLEAR* before that YOU (and others
who get bets down on those fleeting opportunities
***early***) can and do make a profit over time!
If that is not clear to you, I'll repeat it:
sports arbitrage traders who get down on
those fleeting lines *early* (before the lines
subsequently move as a result of that action)
can and will make some profit over time!
But those infrequent PLUS MONEY lines which present
the arbitrage opportunity, not only DON'T last for long
in the first place, but even if EVERY arbitrage player
saw them at the precise same moment and then quickly
tried to get down on them (betting THOUSANDS *each*)
THOSE ODDS WILL NOT HOLD STEADY while each and every
trader plunks his $1,000-$5,000 down AT THAT BOOK!
It may last for the scant few minutes it takes for
maybe 2-3 LARGE bets to come in (the lucky FIRST few)
and then the line moves and that opportunity is gone!!!!
And this pattern can and will repeat itself time and
time and time again, thus the gross profit SHRINKS
*because* the gross number of opportunities SHRINK!!!!
So, for bettors OTHER THAN THE LUCKY FIRST FEW IN,
shrinking a small profit base even further makes it
untenable FOR *THEM*...the overwhelming MAJORITY!
Understand now?
Just because YOU were not able to make a success of it does not mean
that others have not, or can not.
(see above)
And as I explained, I made profit,
it's just that the time/effort required
to make that meagre profit WAS NOT WORTH IT.
Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
Pointing out the flaws in your method is
"railing against" something?!?!
|
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Guest
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 3:01 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | Gee that's funny, I never said I was making large or substantive bets. In
fact, I specifically said:
"Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative."
|
Gee, it's funny because I distinctly said (a few times)
that due to transaction fees and possible TOUT FEES (to you
or whichever service)...and due to the occasional probability
of getting stuck with only ONE SIDE of the bet due to
practicality issues and/or cancelled bets and/or technical
difficulties - let alone the AMOUNT OF TIME one needs to
devote to it - in order to make anything other than piddly
chump change, one needs to bet in the area of $1,000 on
EACH SIDE of EVERY arbitrage opp!
(ie. a yield of perhaps $20-50 on average, not counting costs)
THAT's *IF* betting $1,000 on EACH SIDE of a PLUS money game.
Naturally, betting substantially LESS yields substantially less,
and thus time/effort cost vs reward would become a SIGNIFICANT
issue!
| Quote: | So I'm sorry, but it is certainly not MY action that is moving the lines.
Not a chance in hell. And they are there long enough for me to take them,
again and again and again.
|
FOR YOU! And only making chump change OR LESS at that.
But as per my point, IF MORE GET INVOLVED AND BET THE
SUBSTANTIAL SUMS REQUIRED TO MAKE MORE THAN unworthy
"chump change" it is THEN that the lines *won't* last
long enough for MOST to take advantage -- and many may
in fact get down a sum on one side but get shut OUT of
getting down on the other side before it moves!!!!
| Quote: | Since you're clearly writing this for your perceived audience, I will now
address them:
Only you can determine what amount/type of effort is worthwhile to you for a
given return. To some people, an extra $50 per day would be HUGE, and to
others, if they can't squeeze at least an additional $500 per day they
wouldn't bother with any venture of any kind.
|
Irrelevant, since there is no documentation to
show what *is* and what *WILL BE* earned from
such a venture ***BY THE AVERAGE BETTOR***
(not just by the first handful of bettors who
get down LARGE SUMS on the opportunity before
the book subsequently moves the line, squashing
the opportunity for everyone else...
| Quote: | You all are capable of making your own decisions, so if
for some reason arbitrage trading appeals to you, then check it out. If
not, then don't. It's really that simple.
|
And thank goodness there is someone (me)
willing to provide the counter-points to
the "alleged" profitability from a scheme
which:
a) only provides NOT WORTH THE TIME/EFFORT
chump-change when betting LESS than $1,000 per side
b) provides some profitability over time to those
diligent enought to pursue it and BET SUBSTANTIAL
SUMS (at least $1,000 per side, ie. $2,000 per game)
but ONLY IF THEY ARE AMONG THE SMALL HANDFUL WHO GET
DOWN ON EACH SIDE - AT THOSE TWO OFFSHORES - *before*
those offshores do in fact move the lines and shut out
everyone else from that opp.
| Quote: | Now, back to our discussion... do you just have to have the last word or
what? You've already said what you keep saying over & over, so why continue
this? I'm doing so out of sheer bemusement...
|
No, I don't have to have the LAST word, per se,
I only have to have AN EQUAL SHARE OF WORD...
meaning YOU started and I responded, just like
the top and bottom half of an inning, and I'm the
bottom half since YOU started...
And I will continue to take my swings at bat
as often as you take yours...
| Quote: | http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:lgX9e.1097844$6l.379951@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
OK, at this point there's not much new for me to say other than my own
personal experience thus far shows that your arguments are incorrect.
FALSE!
You KEEP____MISSING_____THE POINT!!!!
*YOUR* personal experience, YES IT **DOES** WORK!!!
Got it?
IT *DOES* WORK for *YOU*, okay?
ANd it *will* work (in a modest way) for the few
who are lucky enough to get their LAARGE bets down
BEFORE THE LINES SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE AS A RESULT OF
THAT BETTING ACTION!
But it can't/won't work for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
of others trying to do the same thing
*because* of the LINE MOVEMENTS taking away the opp
AFTER ***YOU*** AND A COUPLE OTHERS GET THE *LARGE*
BETS DOWN AT THAT OFFSHORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't know how to dumb-it-down for you any further!
I see arbitrage opportunities regularly that are available for 10 to 30
minutes, AMPLE time to get them for darn near anyone.
The *time* is ***NOT*** the concern,
but rather that the book *will* move
the line (erasing the arbitrage opp)
AFTER a few LARGE BETS COME IN FROM *YOU*
AND COUPLE/FEW OTHERS (several THOUSAND dollars)!!!
THAT'S THE freakin POINT!
SO as more people enter to do this,
those opps NECESSARILY *will* shrink!!!!!!!!!
What part of this OBVIOUS scenario is it that
you just can't seem to understand????????
I was prepared to leave it at "we have differences of opinion and
experience" and call it quits, but it was you who had to respond with a
repeat of your previous arguments, the vast majority of which my
experience shows to not be the case.
FALSE, as I responded with a totally different
point which I had not mentioned before!!!!!!!!
The point about subsequent line movements on
those FEW arbitrage opps WHICH WILL ERASE THE
OPP FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF BETTORS!
Perhaps I'm "lucky", or "in early" or whatever.
Evidently.
And good for you!
But *everyone* can NOT get down on the SAME
+ line as you (with THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of
dollars coming in on that SAME SIDE, at that
SAME OFFSHORE) It will NOT HAPPEN!!!!
Books have to balance their action!
Hypothetical example:
YOU and 3 friends each see an opp that exists
at BOOK A listing +105 odds for the visiting
team and BOOK B listing +105 odds for the homies.
YOU and your 3 buddies EACH attempt to bet $2,000
on both sides -- thus ensuring a payoff of $100.
But NATURALLY this opp isn't going to last!
THey rarely last long in the first place, as we all know.
But more to the point, in addition to them not lasting
long anyway, when MORE arbitrage players want to get
down on that SAME +105 at each BOOK, they *won't* be
able to *because* each book will drop there odds to
+100 after those LARGE BETS come in on the same side
by the first few guys (you and your buddies)
So, opportunity #1 is GONZO for the overwhelming majority
of those YOU convince to pay YOU money to get involved
with this system.
But alas, that particular day there are TWO more opportunities!
SO YOU and your buddies POUNCE ON THEM TOO, as you should!
And good for you!
It will work for you as longa s you keep getting
those SUBSTANTIVE BETS DOWN **before** it causes
the books to move their lines!
However, just like opportunity #1, opportunity #2 and #3
are also GONZO for virtually everyone else *because*
those two particular books simply WILL NOT sit there
and watch THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of dollars pour in
one ONE SIDE without adjusting their lines!
So, if 50 arbitrage players were trying to be actively
involved in the scheme, and 3 or 4 get down LARGE BETS
at those two particular offshores early -- the lines
will move out of "arbitrage range" and thus, about 46-47
wannabe arbitrage bettors are out of luck - over and
over and over and over again!
Sure, the first few LARGE BETS getting in (before their
action causes the lines to move) might not be from the
SAME few guys *ALL* the time - but nevertheless
MOST of the time, MOST bettors will miss out on these
few opportunities...THAT'S THE POINT!!!
So for the overwhelming MAJORITY it will not be near
as profitable as it might appeaar on paper, and certainly
nowhere near as profitable as for those lucky enough to
get LARGE BETS DOWN early *before* the lines move!
Maybe I should check in 6 months to a year from now and let you know how
I've done over a longer time horizon.
See folks??? This guy just KEEPS___ MISSING____THE POINT!
Un-believable!
I keep telling him I *believe* it **DOES** work FOR *HIM*
and the other few who are lucky enough to get LARGE BETS
down *before* the books move their lines AS A RESULT OF
THOSE LARGE BETS -- but he can't seem to understand that
**because** the books will move their lines, "others"
will NOT make the same or near the same profit he does!
Let alone the fact that THEY have added costs included
cutting into their meagre profits which HE doesn't have!
Folks can and should make up their own minds, as I and many others have
done.
Yep, and I'm here to present info to help THEM
make up their own minds as to what the "alleged"
profitabilty might be **FOR THEM** -- since
it will NOT be the SAME profitability as it is
FOR YOU!!! It *can't* be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some will have your experiences, and some mine.
*MOST* will have MY experience, in that they *will*
make a tiny profit, YES...but that tiny amount
will NOT be worth their time/effort.
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:2KV9e.1097587$6l.157751@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
[email protected]> wrote
[email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at
this. Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make
money, and some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like complaining
that the price of a stock or currency moved and therefore you weren't
able to get it where you wanted it. It's part of the nature of any
market!
You've missed the point.
We all KNOW lines move and opportunities are lost.
The point is, standard/common lines (or extremely close)
will linger at numerous books for one to several hours.
...But lines which present an arbitrage opportunity
are QUICKLY LOST due to the inequality/BARGAIN in the
lines spotted by other bettors, and with even a few
ARBITRAGE BETTORS HAVING TO PLUNK DOWN SEVERAL THOUSANDS
AT THAT *lone* offshore, THOSE lines will **surely**
**disappear** for the overrwhelming MAJORITY of those
wanting to buy into the arbitrage system!!!
**BECAUSE** of those constant LOST opportunities -
which will only increase in frustration as more and
more "arbitrage traders" get involved - that means that
the meagre profits FOR THOSE OTHERS WHO TRY TO BET
*after* YOU and a couple others get down on the action
will shrink proportionately and significantly!!!!
Yes, *YOU* and a few others who get in on that line EARLY
will be able to take advantage and make a small profit.
I've already acknowledged this!
THe FIRST ONES IN ON A GIVEN LINE *will* profit a small
amount over time!
BUT...for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, this will NOT be
the case, *because* the lines *will* move as a result of
this action!!!!
Get it now?
In some ways it's like what occurs in a pyramid scheme
where people are sold the PROMISE of profits...and it
certainly DOES PROFIT those who get in on it *EARLY*
But those who enter the action down the line find it
increasingly difficult and ultimately it's a lost cause.
For this reason such schemes are outlawed.
YOURS is *NOT* a pyramid scheme but I'm pointing out
the similarities with the "promise/expectation" and
how only the EARLY ones make the profit and the rest
end up suffering...THAT is the point, let alone the
practicality issues which I've already identified.
Furthermore, if *YOU* stand to profit in any way
from others getting involved in this, then we understand
your motive to sell this to others - much like a pyramid
schemer. YOU see only how the method profits YOU, but
fail to understand how it will fall apart when more
come on board...
You seem unable to let this go...
Actually it's YOU who seems "unable to let this go"
since YOU stated in your LAST POST:
"so I think I'll just leave it at this."
I accepted your word that you were leaving it at that.
But instead it is YOU who can't seem to let this go...
or to accept that there ARE people who make a nice tidy consistent
additional (or even primary) income stream off of sports arbitrage
trading.
Do you have trouble with reading comprehension?
I made it *CLEAR* before that YOU (and others
who get bets down on those fleeting opportunities
***early***) can and do make a profit over time!
If that is not clear to you, I'll repeat it:
sports arbitrage traders who get down on
those fleeting lines *early* (before the lines
subsequently move as a result of that action)
can and will make some profit over time!
But those infrequent PLUS MONEY lines which present
the arbitrage opportunity, not only DON'T last for long
in the first place, but even if EVERY arbitrage player
saw them at the precise same moment and then quickly
tried to get down on them (betting THOUSANDS *each*)
THOSE ODDS WILL NOT HOLD STEADY while each and every
trader plunks his $1,000-$5,000 down AT THAT BOOK!
It may last for the scant few minutes it takes for
maybe 2-3 LARGE bets to come in (the lucky FIRST few)
and then the line moves and that opportunity is gone!!!!
And this pattern can and will repeat itself time and
time and time again, thus the gross profit SHRINKS
*because* the gross number of opportunities SHRINK!!!!
So, for bettors OTHER THAN THE LUCKY FIRST FEW IN,
shrinking a small profit base even further makes it
untenable FOR *THEM*...the overwhelming MAJORITY!
Understand now?
Just because YOU were not able to make a success of it does not mean
that others have not, or can not.
(see above)
And as I explained, I made profit,
it's just that the time/effort required
to make that meagre profit WAS NOT WORTH IT.
Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
Pointing out the flaws in your method is
"railing against" something?!?!
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| Back to top |
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Guest
|
| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 4:01 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
|
|
OK then, I see that logic. Shall we call this game concluded then? I
thought the points for both sides had been made quite some time ago.
J
--
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
| Quote: | No, I don't have to have the LAST word, per se,
I only have to have AN EQUAL SHARE OF WORD...
meaning YOU started and I responded, just like
the top and bottom half of an inning, and I'm the
bottom half since YOU started...
And I will continue to take my swings at bat
as often as you take yours...
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:lgX9e.1097844$6l.379951@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
OK, at this point there's not much new for me to say other than my own
personal experience thus far shows that your arguments are incorrect.
FALSE!
You KEEP____MISSING_____THE POINT!!!!
*YOUR* personal experience, YES IT **DOES** WORK!!!
Got it?
IT *DOES* WORK for *YOU*, okay?
ANd it *will* work (in a modest way) for the few
who are lucky enough to get their LAARGE bets down
BEFORE THE LINES SUBSEQUENTLY MOVE AS A RESULT OF
THAT BETTING ACTION!
But it can't/won't work for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY
of others trying to do the same thing
*because* of the LINE MOVEMENTS taking away the opp
AFTER ***YOU*** AND A COUPLE OTHERS GET THE *LARGE*
BETS DOWN AT THAT OFFSHORE!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I don't know how to dumb-it-down for you any further!
I see arbitrage opportunities regularly that are available for 10 to 30
minutes, AMPLE time to get them for darn near anyone.
The *time* is ***NOT*** the concern,
but rather that the book *will* move
the line (erasing the arbitrage opp)
AFTER a few LARGE BETS COME IN FROM *YOU*
AND COUPLE/FEW OTHERS (several THOUSAND dollars)!!!
THAT'S THE freakin POINT!
SO as more people enter to do this,
those opps NECESSARILY *will* shrink!!!!!!!!!
What part of this OBVIOUS scenario is it that
you just can't seem to understand????????
I was prepared to leave it at "we have differences of opinion and
experience" and call it quits, but it was you who had to respond with a
repeat of your previous arguments, the vast majority of which my
experience shows to not be the case.
FALSE, as I responded with a totally different
point which I had not mentioned before!!!!!!!!
The point about subsequent line movements on
those FEW arbitrage opps WHICH WILL ERASE THE
OPP FOR THE OVERWHELMING MAJORITY OF BETTORS!
Perhaps I'm "lucky", or "in early" or whatever.
Evidently.
And good for you!
But *everyone* can NOT get down on the SAME
+ line as you (with THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of
dollars coming in on that SAME SIDE, at that
SAME OFFSHORE) It will NOT HAPPEN!!!!
Books have to balance their action!
Hypothetical example:
YOU and 3 friends each see an opp that exists
at BOOK A listing +105 odds for the visiting
team and BOOK B listing +105 odds for the homies.
YOU and your 3 buddies EACH attempt to bet $2,000
on both sides -- thus ensuring a payoff of $100.
But NATURALLY this opp isn't going to last!
THey rarely last long in the first place, as we all know.
But more to the point, in addition to them not lasting
long anyway, when MORE arbitrage players want to get
down on that SAME +105 at each BOOK, they *won't* be
able to *because* each book will drop there odds to
+100 after those LARGE BETS come in on the same side
by the first few guys (you and your buddies)
So, opportunity #1 is GONZO for the overwhelming majority
of those YOU convince to pay YOU money to get involved
with this system.
But alas, that particular day there are TWO more opportunities!
SO YOU and your buddies POUNCE ON THEM TOO, as you should!
And good for you!
It will work for you as longa s you keep getting
those SUBSTANTIVE BETS DOWN **before** it causes
the books to move their lines!
However, just like opportunity #1, opportunity #2 and #3
are also GONZO for virtually everyone else *because*
those two particular books simply WILL NOT sit there
and watch THOUSANDS AND THOUSANDS of dollars pour in
one ONE SIDE without adjusting their lines!
So, if 50 arbitrage players were trying to be actively
involved in the scheme, and 3 or 4 get down LARGE BETS
at those two particular offshores early -- the lines
will move out of "arbitrage range" and thus, about 46-47
wannabe arbitrage bettors are out of luck - over and
over and over and over again!
Sure, the first few LARGE BETS getting in (before their
action causes the lines to move) might not be from the
SAME few guys *ALL* the time - but nevertheless
MOST of the time, MOST bettors will miss out on these
few opportunities...THAT'S THE POINT!!!
So for the overwhelming MAJORITY it will not be near
as profitable as it might appeaar on paper, and certainly
nowhere near as profitable as for those lucky enough to
get LARGE BETS DOWN early *before* the lines move!
Maybe I should check in 6 months to a year from now and let you know how
I've done over a longer time horizon.
See folks??? This guy just KEEPS___ MISSING____THE POINT!
Un-believable!
I keep telling him I *believe* it **DOES** work FOR *HIM*
and the other few who are lucky enough to get LARGE BETS
down *before* the books move their lines AS A RESULT OF
THOSE LARGE BETS -- but he can't seem to understand that
**because** the books will move their lines, "others"
will NOT make the same or near the same profit he does!
Let alone the fact that THEY have added costs included
cutting into their meagre profits which HE doesn't have!
Folks can and should make up their own minds, as I and many others have
done.
Yep, and I'm here to present info to help THEM
make up their own minds as to what the "alleged"
profitabilty might be **FOR THEM** -- since
it will NOT be the SAME profitability as it is
FOR YOU!!! It *can't* be!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Some will have your experiences, and some mine.
*MOST* will have MY experience, in that they *will*
make a tiny profit, YES...but that tiny amount
will NOT be worth their time/effort.
[email protected]> wrote in message
news:2KV9e.1097587$6l.157751@pd7tw2no...
[email protected] wrote:
[email protected]> wrote
[email protected] wrote:
Well, we clearly have a difference of opinion and experience. I
speak
from my experience and point of view, and you from yours, and that's
fine. We're not going to agree, so I think I'll just leave it at
this. Some will trade and make money, some will trade and not make
money, and some will not trade at all. It's all good.
Jonathan
In addition, to what I've already alluded to,
there is the compounding problem - a VERY REAL PROBLEM -
of bettors (perhaps other arbitrage players) betting
LARGE sums on a given PLUS MONEY side at the ONE book
offering PLUS MONEY on a given side, and thus causing
that line to move - ie. disappear as a PLUS MONEY play.
Lines *do* move at offshores. A $1000 wager (or two)
can (and WILL) cause a single offshore to move a +105 side
down to even money or even -103 or so...
ANd such sums NEED to be bet inorder to make anything
more than piddly chump change with sports arbitrage trading.
When those sums are bet AT *ONE* OFFSHORE (or 2 or 3 bets)
those PLUS MONEY odds disappear...
In short, if *YOU* (and/or 1 or 2 other arbitrage bettors)
were betting enough to make more than chump change, and
YOU/they consistently jump on these opportunities as SOON as
they become available, then the odds are thoses opportunities
WILL *NOT* be there for the overwhelming MAJORITY of others
who might also be interested in arbitrage trading - despite
your claims that *YOU* personally are making a small profit
with arbitrage trading...
Those PLUS MONEY odds simply **WILL NOT** remain there
AT THAT ONE OR TWO BOOKS while hundreds of arbitrage bettors
*EACH* place $1000+ bets on them! NOT A FREAKIN CHANCE!
Those plus money odds may only last for ONE or a couple large
bets and then they disappear!
Sure, *YOU* may cash in - at least in a small way, over time.
But those who are trying to place bets AFTER you may be out
of luck. In many, many cases they will be, if not the majority
of the time! And WORSE, on occasion they may get down on
ONE side of the play at one book but when they go to make the
other side of the play at the other book, find that other
arbitrage bettors have caused that line to move and they
can't get down on it at PLUS MONEY (or even if they still
could it may be considerably less plus money than before)
You are looking at it from *YOUR* personal experience
as you say...and it may be true as it pertains to YOU...
but I am looking at it from the perspective of someone who
would be trying to get down a bet AT THE SAME BOOK but
**after** YOU and one or two others have already each
dumped $1,000 - $2,000 bets on the same side -- and the
LINES HAVE SUBSEQUENTLY & quickly MOVED!!!
A very significant problem for "others" (not YOU however)
And it's WORSE for them if they are paying someone for
software or a service to alert them of arbitrage plays,
because the opportunities would be shrinking from what
is only a tiny profit to begin with...
Of course lines move. Complaining about that is just like complaining
that the price of a stock or currency moved and therefore you weren't
able to get it where you wanted it. It's part of the nature of any
market!
You've missed the point.
We all KNOW lines move and opportunities are lost.
The point is, standard/common lines (or extremely close)
will linger at numerous books for one to several hours.
...But lines which present an arbitrage opportunity
are QUICKLY LOST due to the inequality/BARGAIN in the
lines spotted by other bettors, and with even a few
ARBITRAGE BETTORS HAVING TO PLUNK DOWN SEVERAL THOUSANDS
AT THAT *lone* offshore, THOSE lines will **surely**
**disappear** for the overrwhelming MAJORITY of those
wanting to buy into the arbitrage system!!!
**BECAUSE** of those constant LOST opportunities -
which will only increase in frustration as more and
more "arbitrage traders" get involved - that means that
the meagre profits FOR THOSE OTHERS WHO TRY TO BET
*after* YOU and a couple others get down on the action
will shrink proportionately and significantly!!!!
Yes, *YOU* and a few others who get in on that line EARLY
will be able to take advantage and make a small profit.
I've already acknowledged this!
THe FIRST ONES IN ON A GIVEN LINE *will* profit a small
amount over time!
BUT...for the OVERWHELMING MAJORITY, this will NOT be
the case, *because* the lines *will* move as a result of
this action!!!!
Get it now?
In some ways it's like what occurs in a pyramid scheme
where people are sold the PROMISE of profits...and it
certainly DOES PROFIT those who get in on it *EARLY*
But those who enter the action down the line find it
increasingly difficult and ultimately it's a lost cause.
For this reason such schemes are outlawed.
YOURS is *NOT* a pyramid scheme but I'm pointing out
the similarities with the "promise/expectation" and
how only the EARLY ones make the profit and the rest
end up suffering...THAT is the point, let alone the
practicality issues which I've already identified.
Furthermore, if *YOU* stand to profit in any way
from others getting involved in this, then we understand
your motive to sell this to others - much like a pyramid
schemer. YOU see only how the method profits YOU, but
fail to understand how it will fall apart when more
come on board...
You seem unable to let this go...
Actually it's YOU who seems "unable to let this go"
since YOU stated in your LAST POST:
"so I think I'll just leave it at this."
I accepted your word that you were leaving it at that.
But instead it is YOU who can't seem to let this go...
or to accept that there ARE people who make a nice tidy consistent
additional (or even primary) income stream off of sports arbitrage
trading.
Do you have trouble with reading comprehension?
I made it *CLEAR* before that YOU (and others
who get bets down on those fleeting opportunities
***early***) can and do make a profit over time!
If that is not clear to you, I'll repeat it:
sports arbitrage traders who get down on
those fleeting lines *early* (before the lines
subsequently move as a result of that action)
can and will make some profit over time!
But those infrequent PLUS MONEY lines which present
the arbitrage opportunity, not only DON'T last for long
in the first place, but even if EVERY arbitrage player
saw them at the precise same moment and then quickly
tried to get down on them (betting THOUSANDS *each*)
THOSE ODDS WILL NOT HOLD STEADY while each and every
trader plunks his $1,000-$5,000 down AT THAT BOOK!
It may last for the scant few minutes it takes for
maybe 2-3 LARGE bets to come in (the lucky FIRST few)
and then the line moves and that opportunity is gone!!!!
And this pattern can and will repeat itself time and
time and time again, thus the gross profit SHRINKS
*because* the gross number of opportunities SHRINK!!!!
So, for bettors OTHER THAN THE LUCKY FIRST FEW IN,
shrinking a small profit base even further makes it
untenable FOR *THEM*...the overwhelming MAJORITY!
Understand now?
Just because YOU were not able to make a success of it does not mean
that others have not, or can not.
(see above)
And as I explained, I made profit,
it's just that the time/effort required
to make that meagre profit WAS NOT WORTH IT.
Have you anything else you feel the need to rail against?
Pointing out the flaws in your method is
"railing against" something?!?!
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| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 5:02 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NO goldmine! |
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<sigh>
No, what I said was, I see the logic in THIS SPECIFIC STATEMENT:
| Quote: | No, I don't have to have the LAST word, per se,
I only have to have AN EQUAL SHARE OF WORD...
meaning YOU started and I responded, just like
the top and bottom half of an inning, and I'm the
bottom half since YOU started...
And I will continue to take my swings at bat
as often as you take yours...
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So no, I have not conceeded to your "valid points" as applies to anyone. I
conceeded to the notion that you were going to respond to every post I made,
regardless of whether or not you had anything of value to add, and that
therefore we should, in the interest of no longer wasting any more bandwidth
on this issue, call the "inning" done, and the "game" concluded.
This clearly IS a game for you, and I suppose that's all well & good. But
since you're apparently determined to turn anything I say into a
finger-pointing fit of "See? I was right! I was right! Yippeeeee!" and
since I don't see there being any value in that for myself nor anyone
reading this thread (IS anyone actually reading this thread? I'll be
astonished if the answer is yes at this point...), I was hoping to just end
this pointless exercise.
Alas, 'twas not to be. You are one of those guys who has to be right all
the time aren't you? You definitely should never try trading forex or
options or anything similar then. Or then again, maybe you should... you'd
go broke in about 10 minutes flat with your determination to be right.
So, since I know it's coming... go ahead and post your <sarcasm>
ever-so-witty </sarcasm> remarks now.
J
--
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
| Quote: | OK then, I see that logic. Shall we call this game concluded then?
Now that you FINALLY conceed to my VALID points
as it would apply to "others" (not you)
who might get involved and NEED TO BET
*substantial sums* in order to make it worthwhile,
and the practicality/fees issues that are some concern,
yes this is concluded...UNLESS you decide to step
up to the plate again...and an ad *is* stepping up
to the plate IMV... |
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| Posted: Fri Apr 22, 2005 5:02 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NO goldmine! |
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[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | Brian accurately noted:
Gee, it's funny because I distinctly said (a few times)
that due to transaction fees and possible TOUT FEES (to you
or whichever service)...and due to the occasional probability
of getting stuck with only ONE SIDE of the bet due to
practicality issues and/or cancelled bets and/or technical
difficulties - let alone the AMOUNT OF TIME one needs to
devote to it - in order to make anything other than piddly
chump change, one needs to bet in the area of $1,000 on
EACH SIDE of EVERY arbitrage opp!
(ie. a yield of perhaps $20-50 on average, not counting costs)
THAT's *IF* betting $1,000 on EACH SIDE of a PLUS money game.
Naturally, betting substantially LESS yields substantially less,
and thus time/effort cost vs reward would become a SIGNIFICANT
issue!
So I'm sorry, but it is certainly not MY action that is moving the lines. Not a chance in hell. And they are there long enough for me to take them, again and again and again.
FOR YOU! And only making chump change OR LESS at that.
But as per my point, IF MORE GET INVOLVED AND BET THE
SUBSTANTIAL SUMS REQUIRED TO MAKE MORE THAN unworthy
"chump change" it is THEN that the lines *won't* last
long enough for MOST to take advantage -- and many may
in fact get down a sum on one side but get shut OUT of
getting down on the other side before it moves!!!!
Since you're clearly writing this for your perceived audience, I will now address them:
Only you can determine what amount/type of effort is worthwhile to you for a given return. To some people, an extra $50 per day would be HUGE, and to others, if they can't squeeze at least an additional $500 per day they wouldn't bother with any venture of any kind.
Irrelevant, since there is no documentation to
show what *is* and what *WILL BE* earned from
such a venture ***BY THE AVERAGE BETTOR***
(not just by the first handful of bettors who
get down LARGE SUMS on the opportunity before
the book subsequently moves the line, squashing
the opportunity for everyone else...
You all are capable of making your own decisions, so if for some reason arbitrage trading appeals to you, then check it out. If not, then don't. It's really that simple.
And thank goodness there is someone (me)
willing to provide the counter-points to
the "alleged" profitability from a scheme
which:
a) only provides NOT WORTH THE TIME/EFFORT
chump-change when betting LESS than $1,000 per side
b) provides some profitability over time to those
diligent enought to pursue it and BET SUBSTANTIAL
SUMS (at least $1,000 per side, ie. $2,000 per game)
but ONLY IF THEY ARE AMONG THE SMALL HANDFUL WHO GET
DOWN ON EACH SIDE - AT THOSE TWO OFFSHORES - *before*
those offshores do in fact move the lines and shut out
everyone else from that opp.
OK then, I see that logic. Shall we call this game concluded then?
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Now that you FINALLY conceed to my VALID points
as it would apply to "others" (not you)
who might get involved and NEED TO BET
*substantial sums* in order to make it worthwhile,
and the practicality/fees issues that are some concern,
yes this is concluded...UNLESS you decide to step
up to the plate again...and an ad *is* stepping up
to the plate IMV... |
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