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 Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 4:02 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
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[email protected] wrote:
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
For one, in order to make anything other than
piddly chump change, one *MUST* deposit at least
a minimal amount to open accounts at a
*LARGE NUMBER* of offshore books which accept
credit card transactions rapidly, and you MUST
have a good sized credit card limit which allows
you to place several bets at a time.
A worse alternative is to deposit several
*THOUSANDS* in each of SEVERAL books, tying up
funds you could be putting to much better use
elsewhere, IF you even had the money!
Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
as +105 at one book, but Team B is
listed at +105 at a different book.
In this manner, one is guaranteed to win
$5 on every denomination of $100 bets.
$5 is a pittance. To be of any real worth
one should bet $1000 to earn back $50.
And this *assumes* that you have active
accounts at THOSE particular books, which
you might not...
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
(Or there was some goof up in accepting your bet)
By THEIR rules (and you're at their mercy in
this regard!) they would refund back to you
your money, but the downside is that your
wager at the other book is still active,
and if it LOSES, you're down -$1000!
Of course it could win and you'd be up +$1050,
but the point is that it is *NOT* the case
that there are NO RISKS as wrongly claimed
by advocates of Arbitrage Trading - there ARE risks! -
or claims that you "NEVER LOSE" -- you can! --
although it's not a frequent occurance.
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
But the $1050 winnings go into your other
offshore account. In order to avoid interest
payments on your credit card (usually a 21 day
period though this may vary), you may need to
withdraw the winnings from the one offshore
account to pay off the credit card debit.
Time and transaction fees may be a consideration
in this regard.
Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
are through credit cards, remember that every game
means you WILL LOSE one side of the bet and each
$1000 bet will be debited to your card! Sure
you're winning those games too, but those funds go
into your offshore accounts. If these happened all
in one or two days, you may not have a high enough
credit limit to cover each opportunity, and thus
miss out on some of them!
Then too, if for any reason you might need that credit
card for any other reason and it's maxed out from
LOSING bets, you're in a fix until you can get those
winnings forwarded to you quickly - and that too may
involve transaction fees!
Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
IOW, the "PLUS MONEY" odds must be present at two
of the books YOU have accounts with AND AT THE SAME
TIME, and you must constantly search to find them.
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
you need to be near your computer every minute of the
day. Thus the overall profit can be reduced somewhat
for many from missing opportunities.
The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
Brian |
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 5:01 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
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For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]>
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error. I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free". While
technically this may be true, that's like saying that walking down the
street is risk free. Usually, it is, but in reality of COURSE there is risk
in EVERYTHING in life. I didn't choose the marketing practices of the
company who's software I use in my trading, so I have no control over it.
| Quote: | For one, in order to make anything other than
|
<snip>
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me. I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and no
you don't need high credit limits.
| Quote: | Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
|
<snip>
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight doing
arbitrage trading. That is not what it's for. But if you can make 1% on
your total bank every day, say 3 or 4 days a week, that's over 15% per
month. Where else will you get that for only a few hours per week worth of
real work?
| Quote: | Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
|
<snip>
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock trades, or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets just
for the hell of it. There are basic guidelines to doing arbitrage that one
should follow, and these minimize if not eliminate those risks.
| Quote: | Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
|
<snip>
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade. I know some full time
traders who do, but since I only have one card with a low limit, even if I
wanted to it's not a viable option.
| Quote: | Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
|
<snip>
*can* nothing. I see these every single day. They are practically endless.
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet (no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
| Quote: | Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
|
<snip>
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different. Can you do it
manually for free? Absolutely. Will you get what you paid for? Probably.
| Quote: | (If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
|
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account, decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
| Quote: | When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
|
<snip>
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,. professions
MAKE money. Whichever you decide to make anything you pursue is your
business, but I generally prefer MAKING money. Many people already "work"
in such a way as to be at a computer almost all day anyway, and it's easy
enough to just have the software running in the background telling me when
there's a trade to do. I can take the trade or not, there will always be
more.
| Quote: | The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
|
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL. And I
know I'm not alone.
Is arbitrage the "holy grail"? Well actually, YES. That's why so many
banks, large hedge funds, and other big traders do it ALL THE TIME. Is
SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream? You bet! (pun intended)
Jonathan
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info |
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Guest
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| Posted: Thu Apr 21, 2005 6:02 am Post subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine! |
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|
[email protected] wrote:
| Quote: | For some reason my news feed seems to not be getting through, and other
times getting through double, so if this shows up twice, my appologies.
Reply is inline below...
----- Original Message -----
From: <[email protected]
Newsgroups: rec.gambling.sports
Sent: Wednesday, April 20, 2005 8:11 PM
Subject: Re: Sports Arbitrage Trading is NOT a goldmine!
[email protected] wrote:
http://www.SportsArbitrage.Info
http://www.ArbitrageBusiness.Info
Take a look, this is great stuff.
J
Arbitrage trading is not as easy nor
as profitable as one might be led to believe.
And there *ARE* some risks!
Yes, there are risks. Primarily, those risks are human error.
|
Not so.
I've outlines the risks in detail and
few of them have anything to do with
human error...
| Quote: | I personally
am not a fan of the practice of touting how arbitrage is "risk free". While
technically this may be true,
|
It isn't even true "technically"
as I have pointed out quite well.
| Quote: |
For one, in order to make anything other than
snip
Well, personally I don't use credit cards in my trading, PERIOD. I use
Neteller, and have it linked to my bank account so I can move funds
instantly whenever I need to. This means I only work with books that accept
Neteller, and also cover the transaction fees, which is fine by me.
|
Which is another problem as not all books
use Neteller and therefore one may be
unable to cash in on several opportunities
as they present themselves at THOSE books.
| Quote: | I work
with about 15 bookmakers currently, but I don't leave money sitting in all
of them at all times. I move money in when an opportunity presents itself.
Eventually I will leave sums in the books I use most, but I am still
relatively new to this myself so am starting small & conservative.
|
Others have to do things differently,
but the point is LARGE sums of money
are required to make anything other
than piddly chump change, and THAT
will be a problem for MANY...
| Quote: | So, no you don't have to work with books that accept credit cards, and no
you don't need high credit limits.
|
Need, for some, perhaps not.
But for many others, YES, hence the problem.
| Quote: | Two, the most common scenario,
in my experience, is only a tiny moneyline
payoff...for example Team A is listed
snip
On an absolute $ basis this is true, you will not get rich overnight doing
arbitrage trading.
|
One won't make much either.
| Quote: |
Three, typically there's no "significant" risk.
However, books are often known to CANCEL bets
and claim they posted a "wrong line" in error!!!
snip
Again, technically you ARE in fact at the "mercy" of the books. Just like
you are at the mercy of the clearing firm that handles your stock trades, or
your broker, or... you get the point I'm sure. However generally speaking,
as long as you PAY ATTENTION to what you are doing and don't bet an obvious
misprint (like two favorites, or transposed crazy odds) then you have
nothing to worry about. Books aren't in the business of canceling bets just
for the hell of it.
|
This isn't accurate.
The point is THEY can and will cancel
a bet claiming a wrong line from time to time,
OR, there are problems with getting the bet
down at one but not at the other...it happens.
| Quote: |
Four, your credit card would be debited the
amount of your LOSING wager - say $1000.
snip
Again, no, as I do not use credit cards to trade.
|
Well, again, that's for *YOU* only.
For others it applies, and THAT is the point.
Not everyone has the luxury of doing it all
*EXACTLY* the way *YOU* claim.
| Quote: | Five, you *can* occaisionally come across several
opportunities in quick succession. If transaction
snip
Can I get them all? Of course not. Can I get 2 or 3 of them? You bet (no
pun intended). Again, credit limits are NOT an issue since I do not use
credit cards. Stop being so hung up on credit cards already, please.
|
Again, credit limits are NOT an issue for
those who claim as you do, but they are and
WILL BE AN ISSUE for many others who can't
do it EXACTLY the same way...in any case,
opportunities are lost...
| Quote: | Six, these "tiny profit" opportunities do occur
but they often require considerable effort to find
- at no additional cost - for the average person.
snip
Yes, this is why there are tools like SureBet PRO. It also takes
"considerable effort" to chart a stock or anything else manually - but it's
free. However most people who decide to participate in stocks, forex,
options, commodities, etc. choose to PAY for software tools to automate much
of the opportunity-finding process. This is no different.
|
And as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
| Quote: |
(If you hire a service to advise you of these lines
their FEES are another consideration cutting into
what are only small profits to begin with)
And once again, does a stock trader, even one with a small account, decide
not to do it because they will need to pay for some tools? Of course not.
Does a carpenter decide not to do a job because he'll have to buy a hammer,
or a drill? I'd sure hope not. When I have done animation projects in the
past, did I turn down the work because I would have to buy several thosuand
dollars worth of software in order to do it? Hell no. I bought the tools,
got proficient with them, AND MADE MONEY.
|
And once again, as I CORRECTLY POINTED OUT,
paying for any service to advice one
of these trifling opportunities CUTS into
the already meagre profits...
| Quote: | When opportunities occur, one MUST be in a position
to drop what he's doing and get those bets in before
those lines move! Often opportunities are MISSED
especially if you have to PHONE in your bet or if
snip
Well, to be blunt - DUH. Once again, this is like complaining that in order
to make money trading Forex, you have to be available and paying attention
in order to trade. If you are a serious trader, DON'T ANSWER THE DAMN
PHONE. Or if a trade comes up mid-conversation, HANG UP. This is either
something serious for you, or it's not. Hobbies cost money,.
|
Which is fine *IF* the hobby paid SUBSTANTIAL SUMS
But this does not.
It's far tooo much work/effort for the minimal return
and that minimal return is SLICED EVEN MORE if
paying a service in this regard, let alone the
practicalities involved which will present a problem
for many (not all, but many)
| Quote: | The above may apply to a greater or lesser degree
depending on how one conducts the money transactions.
And in my case at least, the above pretty much does not apply AT ALL. And I
know I'm not alone.
|
So you claim.
Nevertheless my points stand as RELEVANT
as it would apply to others (not all, but many)
| Quote: | Is SPORTS arbitrage the holy grail? No. Is it one more additional relatively
low-risk and low-stress income stream?
|
Though unlikely to be worth the time and effort
let alone the practicalities as I have pointed out
which *WOULD* apply to many.
Frankly, I'm convinced it's NOT worth the time
and effort as I spent considerable time with it
at one point a few years ago and I do this FULL-TIME!
The meagre profits did NOT pay for the time and effort
despite my best efforts....it's like like spending
8 hours a day digging holes for a net of $130, but
for an added hobby (sports arbitrage) spending an
additional 4 hours a night digging more holes but
being paid only $13...not worth it...
Is the added 13 meagre dollars a profit? Yep.
Is it worth the time and effort? Nope. |
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